Iran Crisis: How Can Trump Exit the Situation He Created?
A series of failed policy decisions by Trump has led to a stalemate with Iran. What’s even more worrying now than a miscalculation is a decision being made for him.
There’s nothing Donald Trump enjoys more than creating a dramatic situation where all attention is focused on himself as the main player and the only one with the solution. But the crisis he created in the Middle East with his navy, intended to broker a new nuclear deal with Iran, is one he must already be regretting, as experts are lining up to point out that he has backed himself into a corner and now sees no clear way out to reduce tensions, which could lead to miscalculations and a protracted war.
How did he get into this mess? First, it’s hard to ignore that the operation in Venezuela, which kidnapped the elected leader, certainly played a role. It’s undoubtedly becoming increasingly clear that Trump could hardly believe how easily victory came, and how he managed to use military force to achieve his objectives without actually putting US troops on the ground. Yet, the consequences of Maduro’s capture have come at a very high price. Russia and China were both so shocked by the whole affair that it triggered an entirely new geopolitical survival mechanism, bringing them closer together—and even closer to the new battleground in the Middle East that Trump has set his sights on: Iran. Trump’s second term will be marked by a failed tariff policy that has made most goods less affordable for Americans and united Russia, China, and Iran, with the caveat that the Chinese economy is doing better than ever as it abandons America as a favored market, writes Martin Jay .
Analysts always point to the risk of miscalculation when engaging in protracted wars with adversaries in the Middle East. And rightly so. American blunders in the region usually have enormous consequences, and we must never forget how the follow-up strategy after regime change in Iraq quickly led to America becoming the enemy in that country, and the subsequent rise of ISIS. For Israel, this was, of course, an unforeseen bonus, as the George W. Bush administration blundered throughout the entire Iraq war program, making one mistake after another, creating a Sunni-based extremist group that could be used to sow confusion while simultaneously attacking the West’s main enemy in the region, Iran and its allies. And in the fog of war, American presidents were even allowed to wage a phony war against the group, shielding themselves from recrimination when supporters of that same terrorist group slaughtered their victims in the United Kingdom and France. Obama launched the so-called war on terror in his final days in office, and Trump was happy to continue it, telling the world he was killing terrorists. In reality, he was paying many of them and allowing them to regroup in other parts of Syria to fight Assad another day.
While the smokescreen policy remains as deceptive as ever, the dynamics of the West’s strategy in the region have become more lucid. Overthrow the Iranian regime. This, however, entirely serves Israel’s hegemony and makes little sense to European governments that refuse to support Trump. They don’t see Iran as a clear and threatening enemy, but rather as a country that simply refuses to fall under Western control and, unlike Gaddafi, can’t even be a convenient scapegoat for the consequences of America’s dirty tricks around the world.
Lately, we’ve seen Iran in the best light, and so it’s perhaps understandable that the West would prefer this “enemy” maintain its current regime rather than be replaced by one that would accelerate Israel’s absolute control over the region. If this were to happen, EU leaders fear a massive influx of refugees and more terrorist attacks on their own doorstep. An Israel spiraling out of control, intoxicated by its newfound power, is hardly the kind of uplifting new world order anyone wants.
But with Trump, it’s not about what he wants, but about what he has to do. He’s the world leader facing the barrel of Netanyahu’s Mossad-favorite 7.65mm pistol with a silencer. He doesn’t really have any choices. Or rather, every choice he has will be his undoing in one way or another. Giving in to Israel’s demands to go to war with Iran would be suicide for him, because both his base and the US political infrastructure would turn against him and likely try to remove him from office the moment the first body bags hit American soil. According to Iran, US aircraft carriers would be an excellent way to end the war in minutes, if they could torpedo one. Trump wouldn’t be able to proceed, blocked by Congress, the Supreme Court, and his own party, not to mention the international pressure mounting against America at every level. It’s worth pointing out that Israel is completely isolated in its desire to wage war on Iran, as literally no one else wants it, and the Gulf States, in particular, are fiercely opposed. No one sees a positive outcome, especially not for America or the West, as it’s hard to imagine America and Israel achieving any kind of victory without significant losses. At best, America has ammunition for two weeks, though some experts now say it’s only about a week in reality. Iran will not be overthrown or defeated in that timeframe and has already prepared for a long, drawn-out war.
It’s also worth noting that Israel and the US have now twice backed out of a prolonged war. Most recently, on January 14th, when Trump was ready to bomb Iran, it was Israel that told him to wait, believing they weren’t prepared to deal with the consequences on their own soil. But even last June, there was little news about Trump’s reason for halting the 12-day war. He heard that Iran was quickly moving to block the Strait of Hormuz, which would have been disastrous for oil prices and the global economy.
So there’s no need for an actual war, which brings us to the most obvious question: what on earth is that fleet for? Recently, according to the WSJ, we learned that US generals have told Trump there’s no scenario that works for him, in terms of a quick strike, which he’s favored for some time, since he got away with it last June. This time, he can’t do that, because Iran has already prepared for a massive response, and now, with the fleet in the Arabian Sea, it’s spoiled for choice. The Iranians are quite confident and remain calm about this latest poker hand, since they have the royal flush and Trump only two pair. Trump has literally backed himself into a corner, and the only question left is how he can pull off a Houdini-like stunt and save face. There are no real answers, only bad options. The least bad option is for him to convince the Iranians to let him launch an attack while they sign a barely revised version of the JCPOA agreement that Trump himself tore up in 2018. The alternative is for him to lose his cool and proceed with a limited attack, which he can sell to the gullible American public as a necessary measure to keep them in line. The risk here is that the Iranians have also backed themselves into a political corner by promising their own people that any attack would be met with a fierce response against US forces and their allies in the region. A third option would be to convince the Iranians to sign a bloated agreement promising to completely phase out all uranium processing, so that Trump can feed the American media a bloated narrative about making the world safer. You know, that sort of thing.
None of these options are particularly good. It seems Trump is jumping from the frying pan into the fire, with the only choice being the timing of that likely outcome. Israel has pinned its hopes on regime change and an end to Iran’s ballistic missile program, which will obviously never happen, as this is the most important asset Iran holds up. The remarkable thing about this impasse, however, is that the American press is still selling its readers the oldest lie in the Middle East: that Iran is only weeks away from building a nuclear bomb, a story you might have found a bit hackneyed, given that it was originally presented in 1995.
Given how stupid the American public is and how bad American journalists are, the likelihood of an Israeli-staged false flag attack is very high, which would automate the decisions Trump has to make. Like the clogged toilets aboard the USS Ford, it’s all a mess, and no one will emerge unscathed. But a non-decision (an automated decision he doesn’t even make) might still be better for Donald than an actual decision he does make.