Is the Iran War the Black Swan Event That Will Finally Crash the Economy?
Why Trump can’t TACO this time.
Just when it seemed that some black swan event was going to take down the economy and society, things returned back to normal. As the meme goes, “nothing ever happens.” At first covid seemed apocalyptic and the economy totally shut down but then it became the mundane new normal that just exacerbated existing negative social trends like social isolation. The Fed’s stimulus propped up the economy with a booming stock market, albeit with some inflationary impacts and increased income inequality. There were bank failures, such as Silicon Valley Bank, which many anticipated would be another 2008 financial crisis, but that turned out to be a nothing burger after the Fed bailed out the banks.
The Ukraine war also seemed to be a black swan event that was going to cause massive food and energy shortages and crash the global economy. While the Ukraine war did not crash the US economy, it did further increase inflation and caused food shortages in the poorest nations. However, inflation came down somewhat toward the end of Biden’s term combined with GDP growth, which was hailed as a great economy. While the Houthis attacking ships in the Red Sea, as a response to Israel’s war in Gaza, also increased inflation somewhat, it did not crash the economy. Even Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs initially were about to crash the stock market, but he went TACO and markets recovered, albeit with some modest inflation from the tariffs that he maintained. The tariffs are now pretty irrelevant compared to the supply shock from the Iran war.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: US oil prices extend gains to +23% on the day, now trading above $111/barrel. Oil prices have officially DOUBLED in 3 months.
6:13 PM · Mar 8, 2026 · 1.53M Views
289 Replies · 1.54K Reposts · 6.28K Likes
Hunter📈🌈📊@StatisticUrban
There’s already an enormous global energy shock, no matter what. And if this situation is not fixed imminently, there will be a global economic crisis. It might already be too late.
1:22 PM · Mar 7, 2026 · 73.8K Views
19 Replies · 114 Reposts · 1.02K Likes
Global Thinker@talkrealopinion
91% on Polymarket right now for crude oil to hit $100 mark this month.
4:05 PM · Mar 8, 2026 · 6.29K Views
12 Replies · 7 Reposts · 176 Likes
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is the nightmare scenario that economists and geopolitical strategists have warned about for a long time, is now a reality. Thus, this time might be different than those others which maybe weren’t as bad as anticipated. Since 20% of the World’s oil supply, at 20 million barrels of crude per day, and also about 20% of natural gas come through the Strait, that production cut is historically unparalleled and is going to cause massive energy price increases. The oil lost from Iraq alone is greater than the feared loss from Russian oil during the Ukraine war. Thus, the inflationary surge will be more reminiscent of the 1970s energy crisis than what we experienced after covid and the Ukraine war. Even during the 1979 energy crisis, there was only a 7% decline in oil supply which was offset by increased OPEC production, thus this is the largest oil shock in history. The current situation is also far worse, at 3 times bigger, than the 1973 Arab oil embargo crisis. This is factoring in that inflationary effects of the six month long OPEC oil embargo lingered throughout the rest of the 70s.
Don Johnson@DonMiami3
This is the largest oil supply shock in history in mb/d terms
2:55 PM · Mar 8, 2026 · 576K Views
78 Replies · 1.05K Reposts · 4.7K Likes
Carolina Lion@CarolinaLion2
This goes on for a month its going to trigger an economic crisis that makes the 2022 economic crisis, Covid economic crisis and 2008 economic crisis look extremely mild in comparison.
Polymarket @Polymarket
BREAKING: Shipping rates for liquid natural gas surge 750% from $40k to $300k per day.
4:46 PM · Mar 5, 2026 · 4.44K Views
5 Replies · 41 Reposts · 212 Likes
The Strait of Hormuz may not be re-opened for months, as the US navy can’t adequately defend against Iranian drones, even if Iran’s ballistic missiles get taken out. U.S. intelligence has seen indications that Iran is deploying naval mines in the Strait which could take months to remove. If Iran is able to keep the Strait closed for a month, we could see oil at $150, which would immediately trigger a global recession. If the Strait is closed for longer than a month and oil reaches $200, it would send markets crashing, reminiscent of 1929. However, even at $120 a barrel, the economy starts to grind to a halt. Because of the hard limits on storage capacity in the Gulf, they will have to shut down refineries and production altogether. Not to mention that destroyed Gulf refineries and oil infrastructure will take a long time to rebuild. However, you also have to factor in that today’s economy is less dependent on oil than in the 70s.
Rory Johnston@Rory_Johnston
The volume of crude production that Iraq has *already* shut-in is larger than the peak of *feared* [but never realized] Russian supply loss in early 2022 that spiked crude prices above $120 per barrel.
*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone
🚨 IRAQI OIL PRODUCTION FROM SOUTHERN OILFIELDS FALLS TO 1.3 MILLION BPD FROM AROUND 4.3 MILLION BPD – THREE SOURCES SAY
12:44 PM · Mar 8, 2026 · 573K Views
49 Replies · 688 Reposts · 4.42K Likes
Hunter Wallace@LutherEnjoyer
After an unprecedented global release of reserves, btw
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fall -500 points as US oil prices rise above $94/barrel.
8:41 PM · Mar 11, 2026 · 638 Views
3 Replies · 5 Reposts · 27 Likes
unusual_whales@unusual_whales
BREAKING: The Department of Energy and EIA expect gasoline prices to remain high in the short term, with forecasts suggesting a decline in average prices only in late 2026 and 2027.
4:49 PM · Mar 11, 2026 · 111K Views
84 Replies · 80 Reposts · 596 Likes
While the US is somewhat energy independent, the US is not totally out of the water on gas prices, as like Biden after the Ukraine war, Trump failed to refill the strategic petroleum reserves. Oil prices are continuing to rise, despite the announcement about releasing oil from the reserves. The US energy secretary said that the US navy escorted a ship through the Strait and then oil dropped instantly, but he then deleted the post, which shows how desperate the Trump admin is. Trump even urged oil tankers to show some guts and go through the Strait anyway, with no guarantee of safety. Cheap gas was one of Trump’s few economic successes and now that is out the window.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: The US announces it will release 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Oil prices are still pushing higher after the news.
7:08 PM · Mar 11, 2026 · 1.36M Views
527 Replies · 1.54K Reposts · 13K Likes
Geiger Capital@Geiger_Capital
Biden drained our Strategic Petroleum Reserve to the lowest level in 40 years, risking national security for short-term political gain… Trump has barely refilled it, and now started a war in the Middle East spiking oil prices.
1:56 PM · Mar 8, 2026 · 509K Views
343 Replies · 307 Reposts · 2.02K Likes
Jack Prandelli@jackprandelli
🚨 The War Is Now Moving Every Commodity Market 🛢️ Oil: +21% ✈️ Jet fuel: +87% 🔥 LNG: +106% 🚢 VLCC tanker rates: +201% 🚢 LNG carrier rates: +529% 🏗 Aluminum: +20% 🌾 Fertilizer: +36% 🧪 Naphtha: +26%
6:56 AM · Mar 8, 2026 · 306K Views
67 Replies · 1.68K Reposts · 3.14K Likes
Global Thinker@talkrealopinion
Sulfur prices have gone to the moon due to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Food prices will follow later this year if this trend continues. The prices have now surpassed even the 2022 peaks seen during the early months of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
3:40 PM · Mar 10, 2026 · 756 Views
1 Reply · 14 Reposts · 35 Likes
BenAris@bneeditor
The Gulf countries have a bigger share of the global fertiliser market than they do of the oil & gas market
Sohbet Karbuz @sohbetkarbuz
not many people pay attention but Gulf countries as a whole are the second largest global fertilizer exporter
10:34 AM · Mar 7, 2026 · 236K Views
14 Replies · 434 Reposts · 1.68K Likes
While oil shortages are getting the most attention, the Gulf region is an even bigger share of exports for certain crucial chemicals. 92% of the world’s sulfur comes from refining oil and gas which manufacturing is totally dependent upon. Taiwan which produces about 90% of the world’s advanced chips is heavily dependent on the Gulf for helium and energy. As for food shortages, 50% of global exports of urea, which is a substance used in fertilizer, come from the Gulf. 33% of global nitrogen fertilizer feedstock moves through the Strait, which is far more than was limited through the Black Sea during the Ukraine War. Not to mention that the timing is perfect with Spring planting season.
Dr. JiHoon Park | IQ 312@Jihooncrypto
🚨 THE ENTIRE CHIP INDUSTRY IS ABOUT TO SHUT DOWN AND NOBODY IS PANICKING YET No helium. No semiconductors. No phones. No AI. No future. Samsung and SK Hynix just went on HIGH ALERT. Ships carrying helium have stopped moving through the Gulf. Here’s how this destroys
6:08 AM · Mar 11, 2026 · 1.65M Views
869 Replies · 5.46K Reposts · 14.8K Likes
Joe Weisenthal@TheStalwart
Urea futures
Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart
NEW ODD LOTS The War in Iran is creating a fertilizer crisis at the worst possible time for farmers around the world @tracyalloway and I talk to Bloomberg Intelligence agriculture analyst about the surging cost of urea https://t.co/niRvIF7txf
6:40 AM · Mar 11, 2026 · 227K Views
42 Replies · 235 Reposts · 1.05K Likes
The_Real_Fly@The_Real_Fly
If the war in Iran doesn’t end soon, food prices are about to skyrocket. Spot Urea +30% since the war began because 50% of urea moves through the Straits.
7:06 PM · Mar 11, 2026 · 2.09K Views
3 Replies · 4 Reposts · 23 Likes
Since half of all humans are alive because of this synthetic nitrogen, expect an apocalyptic famine in the global South, which will add to the already massive migrant wave into Europe from the war. However, it is not just the fertilizer shortage but about half the costs of food production are energy costs. While America won’t see a famine, food shortages or at least rising food prices are likely. Not to mention that as the US and Israel attack Iran’s desalination plants that Iran is only 3% dependent on desalination while US allies in the Gulf and Israel are at 40-90%.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: US oil prices officially post their largest weekly gain on record, in data going back to 1982, rising +34.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week -1,500 points lower, its worst week in nearly a year. It’s going to be an extremely busy weekend ahead.
4:06 PM · Mar 6, 2026 · 324K Views
157 Replies · 896 Reposts · 4.57K Likes
While the US may be energy independent enough to weather the closure of the Strait, both Europe and Asia receive the bulk of their oil from the Gulf. Russia may halt oil supply to Europe to supply Asia instead as revenge for supporting Ukraine, so Europe is totally screwed. For instance, Britain has just two days of gas stored up. Not to mention that the energy shocks and food shortages will collapse nations like during the Arab Spring, which could trigger further conflicts and revolutions, creating further economic turmoil way beyond the war escalation.
Nine-tailed Fox 🇰🇷@saber_k086
UPDATE: Korean media reports that ALL of USFK THAAD batteries have been shipped to the Middle East.
Nine-tailed Fox 🇰🇷 @saber_k086
WP: “The Pentagon is moving parts of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system from South Korea to the Middle East, according to two officials.” What China couldn’t do for ten years, done after only a few days of Trump’s wild ride
10:04 AM · Mar 10, 2026 · 1.26M Views
153 Replies · 1.5K Reposts · 6.89K Likes
If oil shortages crash Europe and Asia’s economies, then there will be a massive sell off in US treasury bonds. This will be a combination of adversaries like China using the crisis to economically punish the US but also possibly former allies in Europe and Asia who are angry with us for screwing them over. Even a staunch US ally like Japan, which owns the most US bonds, will have no choice but to sell off bonds to try to save their own currency and economy. The US is relocating the THAAD and Patriot defense systems from South Korea to the Gulf, which means that South Korea and other East Asian allies will be vulnerable. This will further collapse their economies, which were hailed as the economies of the future, giving them further reasons to cut off economic and geopolitical ties with the US.
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
S&P HAS WARNED THAT THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT IS BEGINNING TO STRAIN CREDIT CHANNELS ACROSS MULTIPLE SECTORS.
2:07 PM · Mar 11, 2026 · 336K Views
27 Replies · 228 Reposts · 1.08K Likes
SungHoon Lee, IQ 276@sungleeiq
🚨 THIS IS MASSIVE AND NO ONE IS COVERING IT. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar are all talking about pulling their money out of America. All of them. At the same time. → Billions in future US investments — about to be canceled → The biggest oil economies on earth are
11:08 PM · Mar 5, 2026 · 1.98M Views
3.51K Replies · 12.1K Reposts · 31.6K Likes
The main nightmare scenario for America is that the Gulf States get so fed up with America that they end the petrodollar, which is an agreement for the Gulf Arabs to sell oil in dollars. This would almost guarantee a depression and collapse the dollar. The Gulf Arabs are already looking to de-invest from the US, in retaliation for provoking Iran and then failing to protect them. BlackRock and Blue Owl are already facing a credit crisis, and if Gulf investors pull back, it could trigger a massive financial crises. There is a lot of Gulf investment in AI and the AI bubble is the only thing propping up the US economy. Thus, the Gulf Arabs pulling back investments could also be what ends up crashing the US economy.
Polymarket@Polymarket
BREAKING: Pentagon reveals special military operation in Iran cost $11,300,000,000.00 in the first six days alone.
5:30 PM · Mar 11, 2026 · 1.81M Views
747 Replies · 1.26K Reposts · 9.61K Likes
NoLimit@NoLimitGains
🚨 Global uncertainty hit an ALL-TIME HIGH. Higher than Covid, the 2008 financial crisis, and the dot-com crash COMBINED. You know what that means…
3:09 PM · Mar 7, 2026 · 640K Views
544 Replies · 641 Reposts · 6.02K Likes
Ron Filipkowski@RonFilipkowski
Wow did something happen in the US in January 2025?
8:58 AM · Mar 6, 2026 · 667K Views
710 Replies · 5.05K Reposts · 21K Likes
Heather Long@byHeatherLong
Yikes. Almost every major industry group shed jobs in February. Private sector overall: -86,000 Hospitality -27,000 Healthcare -28,000 Manufacturing -12,000 Tranport/warehouse -11,000 Construction -11,000 Information -11,000 Federal gov’t -10,000 Professional/biz -5,000 Mining
8:54 AM · Mar 6, 2026 · 544K Views
415 Replies · 3.06K Reposts · 6.05K Likes
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
Finance-related job openings are collapsing: Finance and insurance job openings fell -117,000 in December, to 134,000, the lowest level since February 2012. Available vacancies in these sectors have dropped -410,000, or -75%, since the 2022 peak. Openings are now even lower
1:53 AM · Mar 8, 2026 · 1.83M Views
223 Replies · 866 Reposts · 4.96K Likes
Asuka@asuka_aryan
Keep in mind that this is happening before the Oil supply shock creates a new massive wave of inflation. People are about to live through a 1930s style Great Depression level of mass poverty if this supply shock isn’t rapidly resolved.
Coinvo Trading @CoinvoTrading
SHOCKING: 🚨 Google searches for “help with mortgage” just hit the highest level in 20 years. People can’t sell their houses and now they can’t pay their mortgages.
6:55 PM · Mar 8, 2026 · 49.7K Views
24 Replies · 85 Reposts · 708 Likes
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
This is not getting nearly enough attention: The 10Y Note yield is now up nearly +35 basis points since the Iran war began on February 28th. While gas prices are rising, mortgage rates are quickly following. All while rate cuts in 2026 are being priced-out.
3:16 PM · Mar 13, 2026 · 62.5K Views
104 Replies · 148 Reposts · 878 Likes
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: President Trump says “I think the war is very complete, pretty much.” Oil prices officially turn negative on the day, erasing a gain of +30%, in one of the largest daily reversals ever recorded.
3:27 PM · Mar 9, 2026 · 1.63M Views
384 Replies · 1.16K Reposts · 6.7K Likes
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
Absolute insanity: In just 2 hours, oil prices have now fallen -$10/barrel and risen +$11/barrel, with prices now nearing $90/barrel again. This is unprecedented volatility.
2:22 PM · Mar 10, 2026 · 1.35M Views
661 Replies · 1.7K Reposts · 8.4K Likes
Breaking911@Breaking911
BREAKING: Nearly 1,000,000,000,000 has been wiped out from the stock market today.
4:14 PM · Mar 12, 2026 · 53.1K Views
123 Replies · 184 Reposts · 867 Likes
https://robertstark.substack.com/p/is-the-iran-war-the-black-swan-event