Trump Legitimacy Crisis Grows as Battered Gulf States Pull Back on U.S. Investment, Particularly AI

Most readers are likely up to date on the latest Trump cray-cray, but to make sure we are all on the same page, Trump is even more visibly losing his mind. I am providing it with the Marjorie Taylor Greene commentary. As we’ll discuss shortly, it shows that Trump’s repeatedly backfiring efforts to assert his dominance and somehow create a success from the epic and worsening disaster are creating a legitimacy crisis. But who can take the car keys from an ever more dangerous and deranged president?¹

This tweet came after the disaster-attempted-to-be-rebranded as success of what has been depicted as the rescue of one of two operators of an F-15, a weapons officer. Trump initially depicted him as unharmed but it appears he was seriously injured. The disproportionate scale and equipment losses of the purported rescue effort, the inconsistencies in the official story, and the Pentagon’s effort to clamp down on information all point to a lot more having been afoot than just a search for a crew member of a plane that had wandered or been sent into hostile airspace.²

We’ll turn to some of the theories, but one that makes sense (as in fits known facts, which of course may not be actual facts) is that the F-15 was part of an operation to seize Iran’s enriched uranium, which was believed to be stored at Isfahan. Even though experts have all depicted this as a particularly hare-brained, high-risk, very low odds of success operation, we posted a tweet that said that Trump was really keen about the scheme and had green-lighted it.

Now if all of the above is true, it would explain (without justifying, mind you) Trump’s escalation to a new level of choler and destructive intent. The same way Ukraine’s leaders became fixated on the destruction of the Kerch Bridge as a way to demonstrate their potency and really sock it to Russia, so too seizing the enriched uranium could have become an almost talismanic fixation for Trump, in at least restoring the very badly damaged image of US potency and military prowess. Given that he believes that non-existent negotiations are or are about to start happening, he and the Zionists and hawks egging him on could have sold (and may themselves actually believe) that such a blow to Iran would force them to the negotiating table. Mind you, for Israel, none of these gimmicks have to work in reality to work for their purpose. They just need to keep Trump at the gaming table, betting despite diminishing odds of victory.

Of course, as readers know well, even if this was the plan and it had succeeded, it would have changed nothing fundamental. Iran’s power comes from its control over the Strait of Hormuz. What happens to unweaponized uranium has nothing to do with that, particularly since Iran also knows well that the US and its allies are running low not just on defensive but even offensive weapons. The US ex nukes can’t keep fighting at its current level of intensity for all that much longer.

Now to the theories of what might actually have happened with the “oh just a rescue, nothing more to see here” drama. The Pentagon is clearly hiding something:

As to what that might be, we’ll turn first to an assesement by reader Arkady Bogdanov:

This is the only explanation that makes sense in my mind- I will again grant that this is speculation. A Little Bird helicopter only has a range of about 250-275 miles, depending on how much weight it is carrying. Little Birds are the chosen transport method for Tier one SOF units. They are highly maneuverable, lightweight, have high visibility for pilots, etc. These aircraft are used for raids- very quick in and out, but due to their short range, they have to be staged from relatively close to their target. 2 Little Birds can fit into the cargo hold of a C-130. The Little Birds were likely inside the cargo holds of the C-130’s when the C-130’s were shot down- and given a quick glance at the C-130 props, it seems clear that they hit the ground while rotating- this suggests a crash, not a demolition (plus you can see what look like shrapnel holes in the control surfaces that are remaining in photos). This would also explain why the helicopter debris is intermingled with the C-130 debris.

We know that Trump was talking about staging an operation using a constructed (or existing) airstrip to steal the uranium, and to my absolute amazement- it looks like they tried it. The C-130’s were not there for the F-15 crewman. This is even more apparent when we look at the reports showing that the rescue beacon activated by the F-15 backseater located him around 120 miles away from the airstrip that the C-130’s were found at. Now this does not mean that this was all not related. The C-130’s were not there for the F-15, but there is a pretty good chance the F-15 was there for the C-130’s.

The F-15 was probably tasked with clearing the ingress/egress route for the SOF mission brought in by the C-130’s. Likely this included AD suppression and possibly ground attack runs against forces defending the target assigned to the SOF guys.

So the F-15 likely was part of the mission, and was hit while the C-130’s were already inbound. Regional command may or may not have known the F-15 was downed, but would have noted the lost contact. Likely there was enough pressure to continue the mission even if there had been confirmation the F-15 was hit by AD.

Now the Blackhawks probably were the Combat Search And Rescue mission. They may have all been assigned to find the F-15 crewman, or they could have been split between recovering the F-15 crew and trying to assist the forces at the airstrip (again- command would see a loss of contact with the C-130’s, but would likely not know actual status or if there were survivors). The A-10 was likely providing close air support for the CSAR mission, as having close air support is doctrinal to CSAR. The drones were likely providing real time ISR and possibly close air support also.

In short- this must have been a real furball. It’s hard to make sense of, but the above is the only explanation that makes sense to me. Now many people are wondering were the SOF contingent is. The C-130’s would have had to have been carrying enough fuel for themselves (return trip) plus fuel supplies for the Little Birds, and the weapons stores (small arms, grenades, small diameter rockets, etc) when the C-130’s went down- fire and detonation would be most probable, and the aircraft crews and SOF troops were likely incinerated pretty much instantly. Likely not much left for remains given the likely volume of flammable fuel and explosives on board.

Let us add some other fine points for the sake of information hygiene: again recall that Ted Postol has said air defense is a big scam. I differ a bit because all the very effective air defense systems involve as critical systems a super duper radar. Recall again that Iran recognized that in destroying the THAAD radars in theater pronto, and also by Larry Wilkerson focusing on the S-500 radars (600 mile range) as to why the possibility that Russia was hurrying to provide them to Iran would be a big deal.

This area of Iran is mountainous and so radar effectiveness is limited. Hence another reason to try to get forces in: it would be theoretically more possible than elsewhere.

Arkady skipped over what the purpose of the operation might have been. Simplicius provided a long post on the operation, with many images highlighting inconsistencies and implausibilities (like how did an airman with a broken ankle or broken leg, as has been reported, move five miles to where he was rescued?). I strongly recommend reading It’s Official: US Boots-On-Ground Deep Inside Iran Amidst Another Day of Humiliating Losses in full. These parts stood out:

We can make several speculative concluding points.

1. Boots-on-ground is already underway deep inside Iran, and just happens to be centered on the area where Iran stores its coveted uranium. There’s a very good chance Trump wanted to stage a surprise snatch-and-grab before announcing a major “victory” to the world.

2. Many have pointed out that this whole debacle does at least prove that Iran has been attrited to such a degree as to allow the US to now fly deep missions into central Iran, including with troops, which are able to get in and out without dying.

This may be true, but at the same time whatever this operation was, it appears to have been a massive failure with huge losses of materiel if not manpower, depending whether you believe official tales or not…

Iran is very mountainous and, as such, it is quite possible to fly smaller clandestine missions that avoid radar coverage because it is extremely difficult to have long-range radars operating in areas where mountains block the radar waves in every direction.

My personal bet as far as the above point: If any kind of special forces operation was to happen, it would only be done with the assistance of “insiders” as was done in Venezuela….

The operation yielded quite considerable losses:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/04/05/iran-war-latest-news-trump-strait-hormuz-f15-pilot-rescue/
Total from Operation Epic Failure so far:

On the insiders contention: that term implies they were high level. As John Kiriakou has repeatedly pointed out based on his time as head of counterintelligence for the CIA in Pakistan, all of the captives the agency interviewed were non-ideological. They needed the money. And Kiriakou pointed out that regular people can provide lots of actionable intel by watching and documenting routines of people and organizations.

Simplicius also points to IAEA chief Rafael Grossi saying on March 9 that Iran’s enriched uranium was probably in Isfahan.

There’s a wee problem with that. Iran kicked out the IAEA in October 2025 after the E-3 triggered the JCOPA snapback (which Russia and China did not recognize because it was procedurally improper, hence they are no longer participating in sanctions in Iran). So any knowledge he has is stale. Not that we can be sure, but it would have seemed prudent for Iran to move some or all of this cache to multiple places, since there was no longer any reason to keep it in one spot for the convenience of IAEA inspectors. From October 2025 from the Arms Control Association Iran to Suspend IAEA Deal After UN Sanctions Return:

Araghchi told the state-run IRIB News Agency in a Sept. 11 interview that the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran is evaluating “whether these materials are accessible or not, and the status of some of them.”…

The Europeans also sought information on the status of Iran’s stockpile of uranium-235 enriched to 60 percent. According to a Sept. 3 IAEA report, Iran had 441 kilograms of uranium enriched to that level before the June 13 strikes. Iran likely moved the material to the underground facility at Esfahan that was too deeply buried to be destroyed by U.S. strikes. The entrance to that facility was struck, however, rendering the material inaccessible. (See ACT, July/August 2025.)

So it appears the IAEA was guessing where the uranium was cached as of the Twelve Day War

Additional useful detail from Simpicius:

You can confirm via the above link in the quote that they are referring to the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center at the center of the discussion. There is apparently an underground complex at the connected “missile complex”, whose southern entrance is here: 32.585522° N, 51.814933° E.

This puts the failed US clandestine operation 35km southeast of one of Iran’s main uranium sites.

It is therefore only logical to speculate that the F-15E “rescue” operation was a fake meant to smokescreen and conceal something more nefarious. Recall that Trump had been talking about exfiltrating Iran’s uranium, an op that would require building runways in the country. It’s plausible that this plan had already long been underway as Trump bought time by claiming it was just a theoretical ‘possibility’ under consideration….

But if the F-15E did really crash near Isfahan, it raises many questions:

Why would an F-15E need to fly directly over Isfahan? Even if it was bombing the nuclear complex there with the shortest-range munitions possible, it would not need to come even remotely that close, particularly over a major population center that would likely have concentrated air defense.

It’s possible that the F-15s were being used to provide cover for the other clandestine operation and needed to be brought in extra close for diversionary reasons and direct CAS with Mavericks, laser-guided GBUs, etc., which have extremely short range and need direct line of sight from the aircraft to hit targets. For instance, reports openly state that US fighter jets did conduct active direct strikes on Iranian forces approaching the area of the CSAR op. That means we do know for definite jets were at least claimed to have been striking there—but we do not need to believe the official reason. They may very well have been striking to assist in the special forces’ true clandestine mission, whether it was uranium-related, or the beginnings of the FARP (Forward Arming and Refueling Point) base setup for future purposes.

An overlapping assessment from Larry Johnson in What the Hell Happened with the Rescue of the F-15E WSO in Iran?:

Now here is the kicker… The geolocated wreckage of the C-130s which were apparently using a local “agricultural airstrip” (see the photo above) just happens to be right over a mountain, about 35km (21 miles) away, from Isfahan’s nuclear facility, where Iran’s ‘near-weapons grade’ enriched uranium is alleged to be stored. Was this whole affair a botched raid by US Special Operations forces to seize Iranian uranium for the Isfahan facility?

Johnson briefly re-reports Simplicius and notes:

Anthony Aguilar, a retired Special Operations officer, has a slightly different take. He offers the following hypothesis:

The rescue operation expanded to become the desired Delta Force, JSOC, SOF, ST-6 high-risk operation to ALSO seize the uranium in Iran; hence the need for so many operators, support, aircraft, etc. This WAS intended to be that operation. It failed. So what happened to the aircraft. I do not believe that they were “stuck”. I have seen MC-130Js plow through dirt, mud, snow, gravel, etc. I doubt they were stuck. It is more likely that the aircraft took hits upon entry and also likely took hits and damage while on the ground at the hasty FARP at the old airfield in Isfahan, “conveniently” close to where the suspected uranium may have been stored.

The detail from Arkady above C-130 propellers being damaged apparently via hitting the ground while rotating would seem to be dispositive.

Julian Macfarlane pointed out in FAFO America:

The Americans say there were not casualties on their side but 100s of Iranians killed. The Iranians disagree .

What actually matters however is

• the US does not have air supremacy — not even air superiority over Iranian airspace
• the US got its ass kicked
• the US operation cost an estimated $1 billion
• the US will have to dig into its remaining supply of standoff missiles
• “boots on the ground” will be very costly
• the US is at least disingenuous about casualties.
• the Department of War should have listen to its Generals instead of firing them. 

Due to this post already being a bit long, we will give short shift to the accelerating Trump legitimacy crisis, a topic which is not going to go away. We had pointed out that the purge of senior military officials had produced a big backlash even among Republicans; the ousted chief of staff, General Randy George, was very highly respected.

The last two Trump tweets, particularly his profanity-filled one on Easter Sunday we posted at the top, appears to have crossed an event horizon. In my gandering across YouTube news updates, I have seen very pointed disapproval from many many many mainstream outlets, the sort of criticism that is pretty much never directed at an American president. One example, from ABC News in Australia:

And an important update on the economic front from Ryan Grim, in Gulf Funds Are Recalibrating American Investments, Including Backing for Paramount Merger, as Iran War Rages On.: We’ll start with his conclusion and work back selectively:

Gulf sovereign wealth funds are undertaking a sweeping review of American investments, driven by a combination of commercial necessity and political recalibration driven by the Iran war…

In particular, the planned merger between Paramount Skydance and Warner Brothers Discovery, made possible as a result of Gulf financing, is getting a new look….

Under the current scenario, the Paramount deal remains likely to go through, but that could change if the war goes on for another month or longer and Gulf oil and gas assets come under even greater attack…Yet even the current circumstances are forcing a deeper look at the entire suite of deals in the sovereign wealth funds’ portfolios…

At risk is the heart of the U.S. economy, which is currently fueled by the growth of AI companies and the data centers that power them. Harvard economist Jason Furman calculated that more than 90% of GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was driven by AI and related investments. Much of the data center buildout is powered by Gulf financing, while U.S. companies are also building out heavily in the Gulf.

All of that is now uncertain. “The story is not just deals specifically, but if you look at all the AI data centers and all that growth that’s coming in the next few years, where’s most of that capital coming from?” he [a source with knowledge of Qatar Investment Authority decisions] said. “A lot of it is coming from the Gulf. And if the Gulf—not politically, but even just from a financial perspective—cannot commit that, what’s the knock on effects on those companies and the U.S. economy? I don’t think anyone has done that math, but there is something there absolutely.”

“Hyperscalers”—referring to major companies like OpenAI—“are fine, those guys are huge, they can afford it, but what about the next level?” he said, referring to a sweeping class of companies that could go under without Gulf support.

Additional signs of economic tsuris:

From The Hill inJet fuel costs skyrocket amid Iran war, exacerbating crisis for airlines, travelers:

Since before the war began, the price of jet fuel in the U.S. has surged by 95 percent — from $2.50 per gallon on Feb. 27 to $4.88 on April 2, according to the Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index, published by Airlines for America. That puts the price per barrel at nearly $205.

Airlines have already begun taking steps to offset higher costs, reducing flight schedules and quietly raising fares.
United Airlines last month became the first major U.S. carrier to scale back its schedule. CEO Scott Kirby said the airline would start “tactically pruning flying that’s temporarily unprofitable in the face of high oil prices” by cutting approximately 5 percent of planned routes during the second and third quarters of 2026.

“The reality is, jet fuel prices have more than doubled in the last three weeks. If prices stayed at this level, it would mean an extra $11B in annual expense just for jet fuel. For perspective, in United’s best year ever, we made less than $5B,” Kirby wrote in a memo to employees on March 20.

And:

Back to a few kinetic war updates:

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/04/iran-war-trump-makes-even-more-unhinged-threat-as-details-of-f-15-pilot-rescue-point-to-much-bigger-plan-say-to-seize-enriched-uranium-trump-legitimacy-crisis-grows-as-battered-gulf-states-pull-ba.html