Will U.S. Leave NATO and Attack Turkey Together With Israel?
This tweet below has been doing a lot of work so I wanted to share my thoughts about it. Since there’s a lot going on in the post, I’m going to break it down into smaller equations.
Will the US leave NATO
The logical answer is NO. We’ve seen Trump bluster on social media before and I believe this is another one of those tirades. The threats that resulting in the formation of NATO still exist albeit in different forms and geographies. A USEXIT would greatly reduce American military capacity and capabilities and at a time of great power competition the US would relegate itself to a hemispheric power. The post suggests the Israeli lobby would have influence in this decision being reached and yes while it is influential it is dwarfed by the influence of the military industrial complex which depends on NATO budgetary spending requirements and locked in NATO member state customers for sustainability. Yes NATO is a defensive alliance but it’s also a US weapons buyers club as well.
Would NATO dissolve if the US exited
Probably not. Even without the US, NATO is still the second strongest force on the planet. As I mentioned above the threats that led to the formation of NATO still exist and with the US now outside the alliance new questions like the protection of Greenland would also require a group effort. There will be a serious period of restructuring obviously. Without an undisputed leader of the coalition, the UK, France, Türkiye, Poland, Italy and Spain would need to play even bigger roles. Part of the restructuring would require a shift away from non-alliance US weapons and this would lead to a period of new interoperability issues that will require a decade to sort out. The Alliance would also have to re-establish its deterrence capabilities as well. In the short term, a French and UK nuclear umbrella would have to be created. However in the medium to long term NATO would have to introduce new nuclear powers to share the load. The first likely candidates would be Sweden, Poland, Italy and Germany. Obviously the Turks will want to participate in this process as well but this will require a simultaneous leap forward with Greece for consensus approval. The toughest and most expensive part of the process will be the shift from US legacy weapons to a UK-French and a lesser extent Italian-Spanish-Turkish weapons
structure.
Will the US attack Türkiye for Israel
Why? I can’t imagine any reason for this happening. Trump and Erdogan have a great relationship and even in a post-Trump and post-Erdogan era I don’t see any scenario where this happens. People need to stop commenting like geopolitics are like some video game and get back to rational and logical thinking.
Will Israel and Türkiye clash in Syria
This is probably the most realistic scenario mentioned in Mr. Kent’s tweet. Both countries have actually set up deconfliction mechanisms to avoid this scenario. The Turks are heavily invested in Syria and after a decade of war they’re not going to allow their neighbor to descend back into chaos. After years as a failed state, a stable re-emerging Syria is a concern for Israel. So this is a theater that will have to be closely watched to see what happens. Clashes could happen but I doubt they will happen in the form of direct engagement between Türkiye and Israel.
Will Israel and Türkiye go to war
After watching what Iran has done to the region, I assume the last thing any Israeli would want is to go to war with the Turks. I find it comical when watching American TV debate over who will be the regional power, Israel or Iran. First, neither were on Türkiye’s level before the war. Now in a diminished state, neither are close to Türkiye and in the next 5-10 years will major landmark domestic weapons systems entering Türkiye’s inventory, the gap will be even more pronounced. Having an air force and bombing a country isn’t the measure of military power.
https://www.straturka.com/will-us-leave-nato-and-attack-turkiye-together-with-israel/