Iranian Leaders Are Not Divided
Over the course of the last two weeks, Donald Trump and his national security sycophants have been parroting the claim that there is chaos among the Iranian political and military leaders and that no one is in charge. This is a lie… and I will shortly explain what I believe is the source of that lie. Here is a sample of what Trump has been saying:
Truth Social post (around April 23–24, 2026): “Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is! They just don’t know! The infighting is between the ‘Hardliners,’ who have been losing BADLY on the battlefield, and the ‘Moderates,’ who are not very moderate at all (but gaining respect!), is CRAZY!”
He has described the Iranian government as “seriously fractured” (noting this was “not unexpected”), using it as a reason to extend a ceasefire so Iran could produce a “unified” proposal.
In comments tied to canceling envoy travel to Pakistan (April 25–26), Trump cited “tremendous infighting and confusion within the Iranian ‘leadership.’ Nobody knows who is in charge.” He contrasted this with U.S. leverage and suggested Iran should simply call if serious about talks.
I believe the source of this “intel” is Israel and I believe that Trump and his advisors genuinely believe it to be true. Let me explain why this is not the case. The newly minted Ayatollah Khamenei, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, the Iranian Foreign Minister and the head of the IRGC are
The Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is 56 years old as of 2026.
Speaker of the Iranian Parliament (Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf): born 23 August 1961, is 64 years old as of 28 April 2026.
Iranian Foreign Minister (Abbas Araghchi): born 5 December 1962, is 63 years old as of 28 April 2026.
Head of the IRGC (Ahmad Vahidi, Commander‑in‑Chief): born 27 June 1958, is 67 years old as of 28 April 2026.
President Masoud Pezeshkian is 71 years old as of 2026.
All men share two things in common… They fought in the Iraq War (1980 -1988) and all served in the IRGC. Pezeshkian was not a fighter, he was a medic, which means he was held in high esteem for the work he did in saving the lives of fighters. Just ask any combat vet what they thought of their medic, assuming the medic was squared away. This common heritage means that these men know firsthand the cost and the horror of war. It also means that the US has picked a fight with a country led by men who faced an Iraqi foe that was armed and funded by the US.
Men who have been in combat share a special bond with their fellow soldiers who know the horrors of war. The war with Iraq was particularly nasty because they experienced chemical weapon attacks which were facilitated by the US because the US provided the precursor chemicals and the intelligence used to target Iranian units. If anything, the current batch of Iranian leaders are the most formidable set of Iranian officials by virtue of their shared combat experiences.
While the Trump White House and the pliant Western media spin the tale of splits and dissension among the Iranian leaders, the opposite is true. The Iranian government is firmly united and willing to fight no matter the odds. Jeremy Scahill’s Drop Site news tells the story:
Senior Iranian Official to Drop Site: Iran Is Setting Its Own Terms for Ending the War A senior Iranian official with direct knowledge of internal diplomatic deliberations spoke to Drop Site News, offering a clearer picture of Tehran’s position as negotiations with the U.S. remain deadlocked and Iran prepares for two dramatically different paths that may unfold in the coming days: a return to diplomacy or a resumption of the war with the U.S. and Israel. 1. On the conditions for resuming direct talks:
“We’re currently moving forward with our own design, and we feel continuing negotiations doesn’t make sense until the U.S. government lifts the maritime blockade. The scope of the conflict has expanded, and naturally the issue is no longer purely nuclear.” 2. On President Trump and U.S.’s approach to diplomacy:
Iran believes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been given unprecedented influence over U.S. intelligence estimates and White House decision-making.
“Our country has had negotiations with the Americans at various levels over the past 30 years — formal and informal, public and back-channel. It’s as if they are showing up to a football match with rugby rules,” the senior official said.
Iran has total disdain for Trump’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and views him as both oblivious of diplomatic processes and totally ignorant of technical issues.
Kushner is viewed by Iran as Israel’s man at the table. Iran, the senior official said, does not see any reason to deal with these two without a figure like Vice President JD Vance present. 3. On what Araghchi conveyed to Pakistani mediators:
“We explained our technical positions to the Pakistani side. Regarding the nuclear issue, solutions that we had previously proposed were raised again so that we could reach a shared understanding with them. Our remarks were not directed at the Americans given that these are bilateral discussions. We believe that the intermediaries themselves should also be technically briefed on the proposals.” 4. On what a serious U.S. negotiating posture would require:
Iran has given no public indication it would alter its position opposing a transfer of its enriched uranium, but has also maintained it is willing to resolve the issue as part of a comprehensive settlement with the U.S.
“These issues, on the ground, have clear and practical solutions, and we have always examined them in meaningful negotiations. Any serious negotiation on the American side must involve a large team, including experts and multiple government departments, so that they can properly understand and process a meaningful agreement that covers the various cross sectoral dimensions on their side.” 5. On whether Trump can deliver a deal:
“Our assessment is that we do not see [Trump] as capable of shaping the agreement. Our take is that they’ve basically decided to keep the war going until there’s a regime change” — which the official predicted would continue to fail.
While Donald Trump will spend the week doing his best imitation of Neville “Peace-is-at-hand” Chamberlain, Iran will not cave. Faced with such stubborn, determined opposition, it is likely that Trump will try one last gamble of US air strikes against Iran in hopes of weakening Iranian resolve. Having never been in combat, Trump’s threats are meaningless to men who have fought and survived a brutal war as young men. Now, as men in their late 50s and early 60s, this group of Iranian leaders are prepared to fight, and fight tenaciously.
Here’s my Monday morning chat with Judge Napolitano regarding the so-called “assassination” attempt at the White House Correspondents dinner on Saturday:
https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/iranian-leaders-are-not-divided-the