It seems that Reuters broke the story yesterday when they reported that Trump was sounding out the intel agencies as to what the consequences of a walkaway from his war on Iran might be.
Disclose.tv @disclosetv
23h
JUST IN – U.S. intelligence agencies are studying how Iran would respond if Trump were to declare a unilateral victory against Iran, and potentially pull back from the war — Reuters
Of course we know what the consequences of acknowledging Iran’s victory will be. The consequences start with de facto and growing Iranian hegemony in the Persian Gulf region and continue with with tighter trade integration of BRICS from Beijing through the Indian Ocean up through the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea to St. Petersburg and the Arctic. And back around again eastward across the Arctic and down the Pacific to China. This spells strategic defeat for the Anglo-Zionist Empire, and it may be just the beginning of the Empire’s move down a slippery slope.
Today the big story follows on from the Reuters story. After Iran presented their three phase plan for a resolution of the Anglo-Zionist war on Iran, Trump summoned his NatSec officials to the Situation Room for an urgent consultation. Iran was clearly dictating terms, and Trump has no easy way out of the box he jumped into at the bidding of Jewish Nationalists. The outcome of the meeting—subject to the usual day to day changes—is that Trump opted for Operation Economic Fury, which some claim will “collapse” Iran in about 12 days. Yeah. Here’s how Larry Johnson summarizes the choice:
Trump assembled his national security team in Washington on Monday afternoon to figure out how to respond to Iran’s latest missive delivered via Pakistan — i.e., end the blockade and then we’ll talk about other issues. The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump opted for economic warfare against Iran as it carried less risk, instead of resuming bombing or trying to exit the conflict. That’s the good news. However, President Trump also instructed White House aides to prepare for an extended blockade on Iran.
LJ goes on to explain that an extended blockade cannot succeed in its stated objectives—the US simply doesn’t have the naval resources to do a blockade. Worse than a leaky blockade, Iran is warning that it’s patience in the face of the blockade isn’t endless, and China:
CHINA MFA Spokesperson @MFA_China
MFA Spokesperson on OFAC sanction on Chinese oil refinery:
China opposes illicit unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law. We urge the U.S. to stop willfully slapping sanctions and using long-arm jurisdiction.
China will firmly defend the lawful rights and interests of Chinese companies.
China has the naval resources to do that, and then what will Trump do?
Robert Pape explains what an extended blockade will succeed in doing:
Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape
15h
Wall Street Journal reports, Trump preparing for a long blockade. This means:
—Hormuz shut down for weeks
— oil shortages rise
— economic contraction starts
And worse: Iran won’t buckle
US pushing world economy over a cliff for no strategic gain
The CEO of the biggest bank in the world agrees:
Nic @nicrypto
Apr 28
Jamie Dimon today: “The way it’s going now, there will be some kind of bond crisis.”
He added that when a credit recession hits across all lending, it will be “worse than people think. It might be terrible.”
Doug Macgregor gets it, but in true narcissist fashion Trump just doesn’t:
Douglas Macgregor @DougAMacgregor
Apr 27
Washington is hurtling toward a sovereign debt crisis, escalating foreign wars, and potential domestic unrest without a clear path forward.
FULL ARTICLE: https://macgregorwarrior.substack.com/p/versailles-on-the-potomac…
While President Trump did not create these challenges alone, he now bears responsibility for addressing them.
The point is that the economic consequences are baked in at this point. Trump can’t stop the Titanic that’s heading for the iceberg. He can only make the consequences worse, whether by renewed bombing or a continued blockade. Iran controls Hormuz and they control the most consequential means of escalation. Trump only cares about not admitting defeat. The fact that recovery for the world economy could require 5-10 years doesn’t seem to enter into his calculations.
The hope is that all these signals are prep for a TACO, but we can’t be sure. The reality is that sustaining the current status quo, following the disaster of Trump’s war on Iran, isn’t a real option. Accepting defeat is.
Joe Kent @joekent16jan19
Continuing the blockade puts far more pressure on us than on Iran. Iran has proven it can endure economic pain—it has been doing so since 1979. The blockade will not force Iran to abandon uranium enrichment, ballistic missiles, or its proxy networks.
Instead, the blockade is hurting the American people and creating serious domestic pressure on POTUS:
Gas prices will continue to rise as we head into the midterms, harming the working class voters who overwhelmingly backed Trump and Republicans—putting GOP majorities in serious jeopardy.
Staging three carrier battle groups plus a massive build up of airpower in CENTCOM to enforce the blockade is unsustainable—it hands an emboldened IRGC ample opportunities to strike U.S. forces and drag America back into war on Iran’s terms.
The global fallout only increases the pressure on us, not Iran:
Beyond the oil and gas crisis, the blockade is now triggering a global fertilizer shortage that will cause major food security crises and potential famines in vulnerable regions.
The smarter path is clear: withdraw, declare victory, and use sanctions relief as our negotiating leverage with Iran. This resets the talks on our terms, avoids war, and prevents further escalation of the energy crisis at home and abroad.
And then there’s this aspect that must have the military sweating bullets, but not missiles—no wonder they don’t want another bombing campaign:
Let me briefly mention how Trump got to this point and an important constraint on him at this point. I highly recommend this video featuring Alastair Crooke: Iran Vows All-Out Retaliation as Hormuz Impasse Continues, which provides important background.
We know that all of Trump’s advisers urged him not to get into the war in the first place—characterizing the Jewish Nationalist arguments as “bullshit”, delusional, and exactly what US intel specialists expect from Jewish Nationalists. Because Jewish Nationalists are in the grip of messianic/apocalyptic fantasies that are impervious to reason. Trump went ahead and launched the war. That strongly suggests either that Trump is constrained to do the will of Jewish nationalists by blackmail or money or both, or that his narcissistic impulses to risk all in a gamble that utilizes the lives and resources of others know no bounds. And yet …
We also know that within days—when it became clear that the war would fail and Iran was still hammering US bases, Gulf Arab infrastructure, and Israel—Trump began efforts to reach out to Iran for the usual ploy of a “ceasefire”. He sensed that he had been trapped and wanted out. Iran rejected those efforts and continued its campaign, with the avowed purpose of humiliating Trump.
Trump the gambler, boxed in by Iran’s resolve, then attempted a crazy move to break out of the box—a Special Forces op to snatch at least some of Iran’s enriched uranium near Isfahan. Who sold this crazy scheme to Trump—the US military or … the Jewish Nationalists? Crooke maintains, with complete credibility, that we don’t know the half of what went wrong. Hundreds of US and Israeli Special Forces flew into an ambush. It was this debacle that reduced Trump to the screaming emotional meltdown that required his ejection from the Situation Room. It wasn’t just the loss of a single F-15E, it was a major disaster that is still being covered up.
That disaster led to Trump’s unhinged tweets about destroying civilizations—a clear threat to use nukes against Iran. It also led to a quiet palace (ballroom?) revolt of the military, who had to tell Trump that they would not participate in any such attack, nor would they launch a bombing campaign of war crimes targeting civilian infrastructure.
That put Trump in the position of either resuming the failed initial bombing campaign or trying … something else. The Isfahan debacle was a clear warning against another “boots on the ground” scheme, so that left Trump with an equally implausible choice—the naval blockade plus a renewed trade war on China. Is there anything that could go right with that?
Robert Barnes @barnes_law
15m
Trump evaluating next 4D move.
In the meantime the world economy is melting down:
The same war that Trump and Netanyahu promised would end quickly is already driving up food prices on a global scale, especially among the world’s largest food producers and consumers.
The fertilizer impact is worldwide because roughly one-third of global maritime fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is now practically closed. The countries that use the most fertilizers on the planet are China, India, the United States, and Brazil.
In the US, a survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation (April 2026, with over 5,700 producers) reveals that 70% of farmers cannot buy all the fertilizer they need for this year’s crop. In the South the number rises to 78%. Prices have increased by up to 47%.
In Brazil the situation is no better, and in some ways even more urgent. Urea has already risen about 50% since the end of February. As we import 85% of everything we use, by early April only 30% of the volume planned for the 2026/27 season had been purchased. Producers are delaying purchases and adjusting their planting.
In India, the price of urea has nearly doubled (from US$ 500 to nearly US$ 950 per ton). The government increased subsidies by 11.6%, but small producers are in panic over shortages ahead of the Kharif season.
The cost of obliterating Iran has quickly reached not only the fuel pumps, but also the world’s largest producers and consumers of food.
Even before any major escalation, food prices are already being pressured worldwide.
We await the next move. The problem for Trump is that in this fluid situation he can’t afford to play for time. Iran knows that time is on their side. Russia and China know it, too.
