How Iran is Dismantling the Empire Behind Israel

Iran is targeting the system that makes Israeli supremacy possible in the first place.

After my recent conversation with William Van Wagenen, I kept thinking about one question because I believe it sits at the center of the regional war now unfolding: why does Iran appear more focused on targeting American bases and infrastructure in the Persian Gulf than on directly attempting to destroy Israel?

For many people watching events emotionally rather than strategically, this immediately produces suspicion. They ask: if Iran truly considers Israel its primary enemy, then why not strike Israel with overwhelming force directly? Why target Gulf monarchies, American bases, radar systems, and regional infrastructure instead? Why pressure the wider architecture surrounding Israel rather than Israel alone?

I believe this question is of great significance as it conceals a misunderstanding regarding the true nature of power in the contemporary Middle East.

The first thing we have to understand is that Israel does not operate in isolation. Israel’s military superiority is not merely Israeli. It is part of a much larger American-led regional system stretching across the Gulf monarchies, intelligence-sharing networks, radar systems, surveillance infrastructure, air-defense coordination, military bases, satellite systems, and financial dependencies. The Persian Gulf today is not simply an energy region. It is the rear operational zone of American power in West Asia.

And once you understand that, Iran’s strategy begins to make far more sense.

If Iranian planners believe they cannot realistically destroy Israel directly without triggering total regional annihilation, including nuclear escalation, then the more rational strategy becomes degrading the infrastructure that allows Israeli dominance to function in the first place. In other words, Iran appears less interested in dramatic symbolism and more interested in weakening the ecosystem sustaining Israeli supremacy.

This is why Gulf monarchies suddenly become central targets.

Because these monarchies host the American military architecture protecting Israel. The radar systems positioned across the Gulf are not passive defensive tools. They provide detection capabilities, tracking coordination, and intelligence-sharing that help Israeli and American systems intercept incoming Iranian missiles. American bases in the Gulf are not neutral observers either. They are operational assets inside the wider confrontation.

So when Iran targets these systems, it is not “avoiding Israel.” It is targeting the regional nervous system behind Israeli military protection.

But there is another layer here that I think is even more important.

The Gulf monarchies built their entire modern identity around the idea of stability. Countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia transformed themselves into investment hubs by convincing the world that they represented insulated islands of safety inside a chaotic region. Their legitimacy increasingly depended less on military capability and more on investor confidence, financial flows, luxury development projects, tourism, and global integration.

The Emirates, in particular, perfected this model. Dubai became not merely a city, but a geopolitical brand. The message was simple: bring your money, your corporations, your wealth, your technology, your banking networks, and your investments here because American power guarantees permanent security.

Iran understands perfectly that this image itself is the real strategic center of gravity.

Once missiles begin flying across Gulf airspace, once investors start questioning whether the American military presence actually increases rather than reduces danger, once the perception of stability begins to collapse, the entire regional economic model becomes vulnerable. At that point, Iran does not need to conquer these states militarily. It only needs to shatter the illusion that they are untouchable.

And that is exactly what we saw.

Because the deeper Iranian message to the Gulf monarchies is psychological: American protection has become a liability.

This is also why I think many analysts misunderstand Iran’s apparent restraint toward Israel itself. People online speak casually about “destroying Israel” as though this were simply a matter of willingness. But serious states do not think in slogans. They think in consequences.

Iran understands that any truly existential military threat against Israel risks nuclear escalation. Israel possesses nuclear weapons. Everyone in the region knows this, even if diplomacy continues pretending otherwise. A scenario in which Israel genuinely believes state survival is at stake would almost certainly push the conflict into catastrophic territory far beyond conventional war.

And this is why I think Iran’s strategy is built less around immediate destruction and more around long-term attrition.

Not attrition against Israel alone, but against the American regional order sustaining it.

Because Israel, without overwhelming American military, financial, technological, and diplomatic backing, cannot function as the dominant regional force it currently is. Israeli power structurally depends on American power. And Iran appears increasingly focused on degrading that structure indirectly rather than attempting impossible fantasies of immediate military annihilation.

At the same time, something else is beginning to shift that I think may prove even more dangerous for Israel in the long term: the political climate inside the United States itself.

For decades, support for Israel functioned almost as a sacred consensus in American politics. Criticism existed, of course, but mostly at the margins. What has changed after the Gaza genocide and now after the war of aggression with Iran is not merely liberal criticism. That already existed to some degree. The more significant transformation is the fracture emerging on the American right itself. (KEYE)

Increasingly, figures inside conservative, nationalist, and “America First” circles are openly asking why Israeli priorities appear to supersede American interests, why endless wars continue draining American resources, and why criticism of Israel remains politically dangerous in ways criticism of almost any other foreign state is not. Polling now shows declining support for Israel even among younger Republicans and growing negative perceptions across the American population overall. (Pew Research Center)

This does not mean Israel is suddenly abandoned by Washington. Far from it. The military and institutional relationship remains extraordinarily deep. But politically, something important has started moving beneath the surface.

And I suspect Israeli strategists understand this danger very clearly.

Because from their perspective, the current period may represent a narrowing historical window. If American public opinion continues shifting, if future political coalitions become less willing to subordinate American interests to Israeli regional ambitions, then Israel’s freedom of action could eventually become constrained in ways it has not experienced for decades.

And this is where the regional dimension becomes extremely important.

Because I increasingly believe Israel’s long-term ambition is not merely survival. Survival is already guaranteed through American backing and nuclear deterrence. The larger ambition appears to be transforming Israel into a fully autonomous regional imperial center.

Think about the wider picture emerging now.

Israel seeks dominance over Eastern Mediterranean gas fields. It seeks integration into Gulf economic systems. It seeks normalization across the Arab world. It seeks influence over energy corridors linking Asia to Europe. It seeks indirect leverage over Syrian reconstruction and regional trade routes. And if Iran were ever transformed into a friendly post-regime-change state aligned with Western and Israeli interests, then the geopolitical implications would be staggering.

At that point, Israel would no longer merely be an American client-state protected from outside threats.

It could evolve into the dominant geopolitical and energy hub of the region itself.

A state positioned between Europe, the Gulf, and Asia. A state capable of leveraging trade routes, energy flows, intelligence systems, and military supremacy simultaneously. A state increasingly acting not merely as an extension of American power, but as a regional imperial actor in its own right.

And I think Iran understands this possibility very well.

Which is why the current war is about whether the future Middle East will be organized around an Israeli-centered regional order backed by American power, or whether enough resistance still exists across the region to prevent that transformation from becoming permanent.

That is the real strategic struggle now unfolding beneath the headlines.

And that is why Iran is not simply targeting Israel.

It is targeting the system that makes Israeli supremacy possible in the first place.

https://kevorkalmassian.substack.com/p/how-is-iran-dismantling-the-empire