Is This Really the Plan?

If it is, it’s really crazy. Prof Pape provides the bottom line first:

Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape

11m

Trump is now threatening to seize control of Iran’s oil

He long said US should have taken Iraq’s oil in 2003

Didn’t work in Venezuela and won’t in Iran

Trump can destroy but that’s not same as control.

We are heading toward a major crisis for the world economy and long war

Dudes, where’s our republic?

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

43m

 BREAKING: Trump announces imminent strikes on Iran — and goes further.

In a Truth Social post, the US president declared the US will hit Iran “very hard tonight,” claiming Iran’s navy, air force, radar, anti-aircraft systems, and “most of its offensive capability are already destroyed.”

He then announced plans to seize Kharg Island and Iranian oil and gas infrastructure — comparing it to what he called the “brilliant” US takeover of Venezuela’s energy markets.

Unsurprisingly, Iran, unlike Venezuela, has different ideas:

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

10h

 NEW: Iran’s IRGC says it launched 12 ballistic missiles at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, targeting “locations housing U.S. F-35, F-15, and F-16 fighter jets,” as well as military facilities and command centers.

According to the IRGC, the strike was carried out in response to recent U.S. missile attacks on a recreational area, a production complex, areas around a garrison near Karaj and Nazarabad, and a local IRGC base in Pishva County.

The IRGC claimed the attack destroyed military installations and “a large number of fighter jets,” adding that its operations would continue as long as “the evils of the enemy continue.”

Patarames @Pataramesh

7h

“Iranian Missiles hit nothing important”

“Even if they impact they are too inaccurate”

 You probably heard those lines at some point

Iran’s missile strikes today showed how 3 out of 4  Missiles penetrated Patriot PAC-3 defenses at a key  base in Jordan

6 PAC-3 were launched for one successful interception

 Effectively 6 x $4 million = $24 million were spend to neutralize one ~150k dollar Kheybar-Shekan-2(?)

Result: An exchange-ratio of 160-times

 This is not sustainable

PAC-3 are not low-cost Israeli Tamir ($ 100k +) but a high-end, very difficult and time-intensive to produce interceptors.

Literally money can’t buy then in the number one wishes

With these types of strikes, Iran creates a political leverage too.

Because once the luxury capability of ballistic missile defense is unavailable at even a few critical sites

 Fighting against Iran becomes virtually impossible

Murtaza Hussain @MazMHussain

9h

Still using expensive standoff munitions months into the war rather than flying deep over Iran.

Zachary Cohen @ZcohenCNN·

10h

“49 Tomahawk missiles had been fired by the United States at the time we spoke …”

As of late April, the U.S. had already expended approximately 30% of its Tomahawk missile stockpile.

When I have trouble getting back to sleep—3am last night—I often lay on the floor and ponder human evil. Tonight may be another long one.

https://meaninginhistory.substack.com/p/is-this-really-the-plan