Trump’s China Syndrome
One of the reliable bits of news that has emerged from the Iran crisis is that at some point, the Trump team radically changed the terms of the deal. Initially, they were willing to do the deal Iran signed with Obama, with some minor changes. The main change was to remove the time limit on its enforcement. Otherwise, Iran was close to agreeing to a deal with the Trump administration. Then out of the blue the Trump team made new demands and soon after we get the Israel sneak attack.
If you listen to what Trump says, he is all over the map, but the one thing he has been repeating recently is the demand that Iran give up all nuclear technology, even for medical uses, and abandon its missile program. This has been joined by a new demand for unconditional surrender. What he means by that last bit is a bit hazy as countries tend not to surrender when they are holding their own. They never surrender to a country that they are not currently fighting.
That is another consistent theme with the Trump people. They keep slipping up when they talk about the war. Instead of “they”, as in Israel or Israel and Iran, Trump people will say “we”, as in Israel and the United States. Then they will correct themselves or use some weasel words. Ted Cruz made this blunder when talking with Tucker Carlson and has been squirming ever since. This hints at the fact the Israel sneak attack was part of a larger strategy by the White House.
The question no one asks is why the administration would want a war with Iran when it brings so many risks. The closest we get is the chanting of the line, “Iran must never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.” Even if you accept that moral assertion, Iran was ready to sign over its nukes. The deal they were willing to sign was by all accounts a comprehensive agreement. Even if the negotiations were a ruse, to setup the sneak attack, why would Trump want this?
The most popular answer floating around is they did not want a war. They thought this Peal Harbor style sneak attack would work and by work it would cause the regime to collapse or immediately sue for peace. The Japanese thought the same thing, supposedly, so it makes some sense. Now that Iran is firing missiles at Israel, with no signs of letting up, the White House has a problem. They either go up the escalatory ladder or risk looking weak by taking a deal.
That is possible, but there is another possibility. When it comes to foreign policy, Trump has had one obsession and that is China. When he came down the escalator ten years ago, he was talking about China ripping us off. People forget that this was going to be his main issue until he stumbled upon immigration. When his comments about immigration caught fire, he became a hawk on immigration, but China was always right there at the top of his agenda.
Some say he has an Israel obsession, which is true. He seems to worship Jewish people, a common folk religion in Washington. In his first term, however, he delivered nothing of value to Israel. He was adamant about staying out of new wars in the Middle East and even wanted to close the bases in Syria and Iraq. Starting a war now, less than six months into his do-over term, makes no sense. The country is against war and his base will revolt if he goes to war.
Of course, if he signs off on an attack and Iran crumbles, then he looks like a genius to the average American who is incapable of thinking about what comes next. They will flip back to watching sports while muttering about how Trump wins again. Like it or not, that is how things work in American politics. On the other hand, if he signs off on a strike and it results in more escalation, he risks becoming George Bush. He would be worse than Bush, as people actually trusted Trump.
This raises another angle to this. China is deeply involved with Iran. They have signed a half trillion-dollar investment deal with Iran. They own 80% of the South Pars gas field, part of the biggest gas deposit on earth. They have just completed a railway that links China to Iran. Trains from Xi’an, the capital of the Chinese province of Shaanxi, started arriving at the Aprin Dry Port near Tehran in late May. All industrial and military goods will now go from China to Iran, bypassing the US navy.
The immediate effect of this is it allows Iran to reach the global economy without having to navigate around the American blockade. This allows Iran to get around the sanctions regime that is central to American policy. It would also make Iran a key cross dock for trade between the region and Asia. Of course, the big effect is it makes BRICS a big player in the region, challenging American hegemony. China, Russia, and India can now easily do business with the region.
That may be the reason for the change in approach by the White House. That railroad begins operation and all of a sudden, they change the terms of the deal to something they know Iran can never accept. This is, ironically enough, the same scheme the Biden people used to induce a war in Ukraine. Notice that the West is still demanding Russia surrender as part of their “negotiations.” The best way to get and keep a war is to demand unconditional surrender.
Another thing that supports this theory is that Trump is a transactional guy who thinks about everything in terms of money. He would understand right away the economic aspects of this China – Iran relationship. It is a threat to American control of the energy markets, something that Trump understands well. He looks at BRICS as part of China’s plan to supplant the United States as the global economic hegemon. A war with Iran, therefore, would appeal to him.
There is also the fact that Trump seems to think he can peel countries away from China in order to isolate her. He has flat out said this regarding Russia. He has convinced himself that he will talk Putin into abandoning China in exchange for some empty words from Trump and maybe a White House visit. He probably thinks he can pry Iran lose from China as well, either by force or by threats. It worked with Panama, so he could think the same trick will work with Iran.
In the end, this looming war with Iran looks more like the start of a war with China, rather than just a war for Israel. The Israelis are getting clobbered with missile strikes, so if Trump were acting out of love for Israel, he would not be escalating with Iran, threatening a new war in the region. No doubt Israel is happy to participate for cynical reasons, but the real driver is probably the China issue. It has been his obsession since he came down the escalator and remains so now.