The news this morning—the Wednesday after TACO Tuesday—is that Iran has seized two tankers that were trying to evade Iran’s blockade of Hormuz. Where was the USN when these ships needed protection to take advantage of Trump’s “un-blockade”? Hundreds of miles away—and don’t count on them venturing any closer. The threat of Iranian anti-ship missiles is very real. From Iran’s standpoint this development makes complete sense—and since they hold the cards Trump better pay attention:
Patarames @Pataramesh
Looks proportional
– Two Iranian ships boarded and seized by 
– Two non-Iranian ships of ‘equal value’ boarded and seized by (with its non-existing Navy)
Funny games being played there…
Yeah, wow, who could have foreseen that? /s Apparently not the self styled genius in the White House. Iran can play this game right up to the moment (call that moment “May 2”) when Congress—alarmed over the upcoming midterms—tells Trump that all acts of war against Iran (which includes blockades) must stop. In fact, now that Iran is collecting enormous tolls and has their tit for tat game in place, Iran can play this game for a long, long time.
The problem is that–because we started this war and put Iran in a position to control the Strait–Iran has momentum and flexibility, and power that they never had before. So now we’ve going to have to figure out just what is going to be the price to get out of this war that we started. And that is going to be a real problem. Right now I don’t know the answer. There are no easy answers. And I’ll tell you there are definitely no good answers. So it’s all going to be a matter of what President Trump is willing to give away and what the other side is willing to settle for, because it’s still that game of chicken. Trump blinked here, but the the game’s still going on. So we’re going to have to wait and see how this happens.
Right. Trump blinked. This was yet another failed attempt to exit the box he lives in now. But Iran just slapped the lid down again. Meanwhile the pressure on Trump keeps building. You can tell he’s feeling it, from the frothing-at-the-mouth tone of his overnight and morning tweets—lashing out incoherently at op-ed writers, newspapers, Iran. Everybody and anybody. The cruelty of the world, the unfairness of life. Whatever.
It may be useful to review the timeline for this debacle, because the roots of Trump’s war on the world go back to the beginning of Trump 2.0.
It all started with the Tariff Shock and Awe—a global shakedown op to try to strongarm the rest of the world into providing the investment funds for America that America had squandered by pursuing expensive wars of choice to maintain the Anglo-Zionist Empire. Trump claimed that he would shake down the world to the tune of $18T. But the main point is that his action was blatantly unconstitutional and was the act of one man who lacked the necessary authority. It was always going to be struck down by the SCOTUS—and it was, despite Trump’s efforts to bluff the Court by threatening to sic public wrath on the Court.
This became a pattern when Trump launched a war on Venezuela. Again, this act was blatantly unconstitutional and was entered into on Trump’s say-so alone. So far Trump has gotten away with this, including the kidnapping of a foreign leader and his wife. That may eventually change as the case winds its way through the courts.
This was followed up by other unconstitutional acts of war, initiated unilaterally by Trump personally: The blockade of Cuba and the military threat pressure on Panama to break its contracts with China. As in the first two instances, Trump got away with this through the inaction of a supine Congress.
All this culminated in the campaign of threats against Iran. None of that worked, so on February 28 Trump launched another sneak, unconstitutional war, strictly on his own initiative. Trump thought his sneak attack on Iran would be a weekend war, leading to regime change.
Come Monday, the Iranian regime was still firmly in place and slinging missiles across the Middle East, striking US bases, Israel, and subservient Arab states.
After 10 days Trump was reaching out for a ceasefire. Undoubtedly, this was sparked by his advisers telling him that he had just wrecked the world economy.
Iran was adamantly uninterested. That situation continued until Trump’s frustration got the better of him. Having wrecked the the world economy all on his own with a crazy gamble on a weekend war, Trump called the Iranian’s “crazy bastards”.
Desperate to declare victory and get the hell out, Trump then launched a massive special ops action to snatch some amount of Iran’s enriched uranium. Some believe that Iran suckered Trump into this goofy op and then ambushed it. Whatever, it was a complete debacle that resulted in an hours long Trump emotional meltdown—he was barred from the situation room while aides sorted out the rescue of what was left of the op.
More threats—this time Trump claimed that he’d bomb Iran back to the Stone Age, taking out their bridges and power plants. Apparently Trump thought this would move Iran to make a deal that would look like a victory for him. He was wrong. And, in any event, Netanyahu forbade any deal that could have enticed Iran.
Back to the threats. But this finally led to a military revolt—in the Imperial City on the Potomac. In a tense Saturday meeting in the situation room, Raisin’ Caine informed Trump that, no, the US military would not be engaging in war crimes. Probably behind that stand were more mundane concerns. Larry Johnson:
During a meeting with his national security team, Trump was compelled by all in attendance — with the exception of Pete Hegseth — to call off new airstrikes on Iran because everyone in the room with him on Saturday said “no” to renewing US attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure. …, General Caine reportedly is increasingly pushing back on Trump’s desire to expand the war in hopes of securing a cheap, easy victory. Fortunately General Caine understands the current limits of US power and the risks of launching a ground attack in Iran.
Douglas Macgregor @DougAMacgregor
16h
NEW REPORT: US at risk of running out of missiles if another war breaks out.
“The high munitions expenditures have created a window of increased vulnerability in the western Pacific.” – [R] Colonel Mark Cancian
That led to the final flurry of hair raising threats by Trump to get Iran to Islamabad. Didn’t work. Which led to TACO Tuesday—an open ended unilateral ceasefire by Trump that Iran basically refused to accept and caused gales of laughter.
Lastly, in the face of Iran’s continuing refusal to be bluffed, the seeming collapse of Trump’s blockade regime, and Iran’s open mocking of Trump, Trump has gone back to … threatening Iran’s civilian infrastructure. This is leading to dangerous threats of military escalation:
Megatron @Megatron_ron
 A retired U.S. Army Colonel, speaking to ABC explained how Iran is now using different radar systems that even f-35s are in danger now:
“Iran uses infrared systems instead of traditional radar. American fighters like the F-35 and F-15 are not designed to face these systems.”
“Iranian airspace is no longer safe for U.S. fighter jets.”
Iran issues a warning suggesting it could cut undersea internet cables and cloud infrastructure in the Persian Gulf – Tasnim
Dozens of major submarine fiber-optic cables run through the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz (at least 17 systems in the broader area per analyses).
Key ones include systems like AAE-1, FALCON, Gulf Bridge International, EPEG, SMW5, and extensions of 2Africa Pearls.
Together with Red Sea routes, these carry a huge portion of global data traffic—estimates range from ~17-30% for Gulf-specific segments up to claims of 95% on certain Asia-Europe-Africa corridors.
They support internet, cloud services (Amazon, Microsoft, Google data centers in the Gulf), finance, and AI projects in the region.
Trump’s blockade in the Strait of Hormuz COLLAPSES – Financial Times
Approximately 34 Iranian oil tankers have slipped through the blockade, with 19 vessels exiting the Persian Gulf past Trump’s navy and another 15 ships entering from the Arabian Sea toward Iran, according to the Financial Times.
Six of those tankers were carrying Iranian crude oil totaling 10.7 million barrels, estimated to be worth approximately $910 million in revenue.
JUST IN: Iran’s Foreign Ministry:‘We currently have no plans to negotiate’
Well, in the face of his latest failure to bring Iran to heel—which has descended into ridicule, which Trump can’t tolerate—Trump is now “clarifying” that the ceasefire isn’t really open ended. It’s 3-5 days, or Sunday, or something.
Mega Geopolitics @MegaGeopolitics
NEW: Trump is offering Iran only a ‘short window’ of time before the ceasefire ends – Axios
‘Trump is willing to give another three to five days of ceasefire to allow the Iranians to get their shit together’, a U.S. official said.
‘It’s not going to be open-ended.’
Here’s the deal. Outside of the consideration that, if Trump had some really viable military, he would have used it already, the 3-5 more days—let alone a renewal of war—is time the rest of the world economy can’t afford. Shortages of key materials are developing around the world and will worsen. I’ll go out on a limb and say that I can’t see Trump restarting kinetic war—I believe the military will continue to push back to distance themselves to the extent they can from this failure. A walkaway won’t work, either. Inexorably, Trump is being forced to two unpalatable, for him, alternatives: admit defeat via TACO, or enter into a deal on Iran’s terms. The economic pressure alone will force something on these lines.
But there’s more. When Trump launched this war I cautioned that this could lead to Trump’s removal from office before November. If anything, the odds in that direction have probably increased. You can bet that Senators and Congressmen are getting earsful constituents, and they know how to read polls. But they’re also getting alarmed calls from reps of foreign governments, from CEOs, from financial backers. They have to be asking: How long can we allow this to continue?
For all we know, they may even be listening to this must watch video interview of Luke Gromen—do yourself a favor and listen to it:
