Imagine telling India—or any sovereign nation—which partners they may trade with. The audacity is staggering, yet that’s precisely what’s unfolding.

A Reckless Trade War with a Partner

The latest salvo comes from President Donald Trump, who in early August 2025 imposed sweeping tariffs—raising duties on Indian goods to a staggering 50 percent—citing India’s continued purchase of Russian oil as “a national security threat”. He doubled down with threats of secondary sanctions, not just on India, but hinted at targeting China next. This is coercion masquerading as diplomacy.

India’s Calculated Response

From New Delhi’s perch, this is both unfair and hypocritical. India points out that the EU alone traded €67.5 billion with Russia in 2024, including LNG, while the U.S. continues importing Russian palladium, uranium, and fertilizers. Indian farmers and industry leaders are voicing their indignation: the Sanyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM) denounced the tariff hikes as an “economic embargo” and a violation of Indian sovereignty.

Strategic Realignments Already Underway

The tariffs have precipitated immediate consequences. Reliance Industries, which operates the world’s largest refinery complex, is poised to reduce its reliance on Russian crude and pivot back to the Middle East amid escalating pressure. Yet analysts warn that such a shift could hike India’s oil import bill by $9–11 billion, further fueling domestic inflation.

In response, India and Russia doubled down on their long-standing partnership. At recent security talks in Moscow, Indian officials reaffirmed mutual commitment and announced plans for a Vladimir Putin visit later this year. India is leveraging longstanding energy and defense agreements, including massive discounted oil and fertilizer supplies that have more than doubled the bilateral trade volume—from $13 billion in 2021–22 to over $27 billion, with expectations to exceed $30 billion by 2023.

BRICS and the Birth of a Counterweight

Here’s the rub: absurd mercantilism from Washington is pushing nations into strategic alliances. India’s pivot toward BRICS—committed to dedollarization and collective resilience—is no accident. Rather than isolating India, U.S. policy may hasten the rise of coordinated economic blocks with growing financial autonomy from the West.

An Escalation Beyond Reason

Worse yet, these aggressive moves are not merely trade policymaking—they verge on reckless brinkmanship. Tariff wars, secondary sanctions, and coercive diplomacy alienate key partners and buttress domestic opposition in places like Brazil and beyond. It’s a self-inflicted wound to U.S. credibility.

In Summary

To tell India—or any nation—who it may or may not trade with is not diplomacy but arrogance. India’s strategic choices, driven by energy needs and economic pragmatism, are being met with retaliation, not reason. Yet that backlash, far from isolating India, has galvanized it and others to fortify alternative alliances. In these fault lines lies the real story of how U.S. hubris may be the greatest catalyst of a multipolar world.