‘Bitter Truths’ — Israel is Collapsing Under Its ‘Permanent Security’ Wars
Conflicts Forum’s compilation of strategic perspectives from leading Israeli security commentators (predominantly translated from Hebrew), 18 May 2026
Alon Ben David: Trump’s 5-week window of opportunity for renewed military action begins now /
Amos Harel: As Trump Hesitates, Israel Acts as if Return to War Inevitable /
Major (res.) Yitzhak Brik: The “Bitter Truth” they are hiding — “The IDF is not fighting brilliantly” /
Col. (res.) Udi Evental: “War for War’s Sake” — America vs. Israel /
Maj. Gen. (res.) Tamir Hayman: ‘Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and missile production capabilities are largely intact underground’ /
Haaretz: IDF manpower shortage — IDF estimates that 75 % of approx. 80,000 people currently avoiding the draft are ultra-Orthodox Jews.
[These compilations are drawn from analysis & commentary by leading Israeli commentators, predominantly from the Hebrew press — as reports published in Hebrew often provide a different window on Israeli internal discourse. Minor edits have been made for clarity during translation].
CONSEQUENTIAL OBSERVATIONS —
Trump’s 5-week window of opportunity for military action against Iran begins now (Alon Ben David, senior military commentator, Ma’ariv, 16 May):
If US military action in Iran does not resume in the next five weeks, it will only take place at the end of the year, if at all. And in the absence of targets likely to shake the regime in Tehran, it is more likely that Trump will continue [with] the blockade. Five weeks after the [US-Iran] ceasefire was announced, it seems clear that no agreement can be reached … unless Trump agrees to grovel and be humiliated … For Israel – which views any agreement signed with the Iranian regime as a bad deal – this is not bad news. But [Trump’s] options are dwindling. [His] window of opportunity for military action begins now, following the summit in Beijing, and will remain open for five weeks, until the kick-off of the World Cup on 11 June … the 250th anniversary celebrations of US independence, and then the mid-term elections …
The two main options Trump is considering are a short military strike, lasting two or three days, on national energy infrastructure, as a signal of his resolve, or the continuation of the naval blockade. None of his intelligence officials can point to an Iranian asset whose destruction would cause the regime to capitulate. It is therefore more likely that he will opt for a continuation of the blockade, which will be a contest of endurance between the two sides …
As Trump Hesitates, Israel Acts as if Return to War Inevitable (Amos Harel, Ha’aretz military correspondent):
A former senior Israeli intelligence officer warns that Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and missile production capabilities remain largely intact underground … [Meanwhile] it seems [Trump] returned empty-handed from his talks in Beijing … there are no indications that any [deal on the Persian Gulf being] made. The one that is acting as if some decision has indeed been taken is Israel. Both the government and the military are hinting, in statements and actions, that they are getting ready for renewed U.S. strikes on Iran.
Maj. Gen. (res.) Tamir Hayman, executive director of Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies … disclosed several previously unknown details about [the war] — “Despite tactical achievements, the campaign’s two main centers of gravity – the Iranian regime and the nuclear project – remain essentially unchanged” … According to Hayman, “Iran demonstrated a rapid and dangerous recovery capability.” In regard to Iran’s nuclear program, he cites “the rehabilitation of the Fordow site and the accelerated construction of ‘Pickaxe Mountain,’ (allegedly) immune to airstrikes”. Hayman adds that Iran continued to make ballistic missiles, reaching a production rate of about 125 per month, accumulating 2,500 missiles at the start of the current war. Tehran also led a rapid rehabilitation of Hezbollah in Lebanon, doubling the organization’s budget and renewing supply routes through Syria … He added that most of Tehran’s nuclear assets and missiles remained intact in the underground complexes, which “demonstrated the limitations of air power”. He says that the war’s second phase, which followed the assassinations of top regime officials and the deployment of Kurdish militias (which Trump canceled), was supposed to include “the destruction of the nuclear project through an innovative and unique approach. The ultimate ‘crown jewel’ – the destruction of the nuclear program – was not fully realized by the time the first lull took effect”. Hayman further argues that Mojtaba Khamenei is even more extreme than his father and is not bound by the latter’s religious decree prohibiting the development of nuclear weapons. “Iran has endured two major wars within a single year, and its leadership’s likely conclusion is that only nuclear deterrence can prevent the next war,” Hayman writes. He goes on to say that Israel’s defense establishment must assume that Iran has a covert nuclear weapons project.
The “Bitter Truth” they are hiding — “The IDF is not fighting brilliantly” (Major (res.) Yitzhak Brik, former IDF Ombudsman, Ma’ariv, 17 May)
The IDF is not a sacred cow. We must stop idolising it. The political leadership has indeed failed spectacularly, but to say that the IDF is fighting brilliantly “is a half-truth that is worse than a lie”. This is what they are trying to hide from the [Israeli] public. To protect the country, we must stop idolising the army and learn to critique it objectively and professionally, just like any other government institution.
In the current Israeli public discourse, a dangerous manipulation of public consciousness is taking place … Under the guise of criticism of the political leadership, [opposition leaders] are weaving a distorted narrative designed to serve a single purpose: ensuring victory in the upcoming elections, even if the price is concealing the bitter truth about the state of the army … According to [their] … the army operated with unprecedented ‘excellence’ throughout the war, and the only reason we did not achieve our goals is the political leadership’s inability to translate military success into political agreements … We must recognise the reality: today’s IDF, which has been drastically cut back in recent years, is a worn-out army grappling with deep-seated structural failures … The first and essential step is to rehabilitate and rebuild the army … The ground forces, having undergone years of attrition, cuts and downsizing, entered the campaign too small, insufficiently trained and suffering from profound personnel and logistical deficiencies. Without telling the truth about the army’s inability to achieve its objectives in the war, it will not be possible to make the necessary corrections.
Revealing the truth about the IDF is essential if it is to be improved … [—] the truth about the lack of operational discipline that has caused the IDF so many casualties, a culture of lies, unreliability in debriefings, failure to carry out checks and monitoring, failure to verify orders, failure to learn lessons, low standards, the poor state of the military depots, a severe crisis in logistics and maintenance within the IDF, a shortage of ground forces, the flawed organisational culture within the IDF, and the serious crisis in manpower – among regular, career and reserve personnel …
The threats around us are springing up like mushrooms after the rain. The ground forces must undergo a fundamental overhaul and significant expansion so that they can defend the country’s borders and the home front, and prevail in any theatre of operations required. Yet most opposition party leaders who aspire to be the next prime minister are preoccupied with building their image rather than building strength. They are afraid to admit that billions must be invested in rebuilding the army and preparing it for future challenges …
Stop selling illusions. The State of Israel is at a critical juncture. The choice of most opposition party leaders to prioritise ratings and public favour over national security is a complete dereliction of duty. Anyone who wants to lead the country must … tell the people the truth: the army in its current form cannot cope with the new threats. Without profound systemic change, without abandoning the old ‘concept’, and without a significant expansion of the ground forces, equipped with new weaponry … the next failure is only a matter of time.
Major (res.) Yitzhak Brik: ‘Most of the [Israeli] public is in a state of denial regarding the harsh realities we face’ – a course of action that brings us closer to an existential threat, as happened to us during the destruction of the First and Second Temples and during the Holocaust. The nation is divided: some attack those who try to hold up a mirror to them, out of a desire to avoid the truth and a blind hope for a miracle, whilst others remain silent, afraid to speak out. As a nation, we are careering like a snowball towards the abyss … Denial is one of the deepest and most common psychological defence mechanisms. It almost always acts as a mental ‘shock absorber’ in the face of a reality that is too difficult to bear at a given moment … Denial is often not a conscious choice to lie, but a desperate attempt by the mind to protect itself from pain or change that it feels unable to cope with … The problem begins when denial transforms from a temporary defence mechanism into a permanent barrier, preventing one from coming to terms with and addressing reality …
History teaches us that the price of strategic denial is indeed unbearable. When a system – be it the mind of a single individual or an entire nation – clings to a comfortable concept in the face of a changing reality, it loses the ability to take pre-emptive action. To overcome denial at the national level … a profound change is required in organisational, political and security culture … ceasing reliance on ‘conflict management’ and shifting to preparation for total war, including stockpiling vast quantities of ammunition, food and energy … In the face of attempts to push Israel out of the region, a multi-dimensional strategy is required: … accelerated development of air, naval and land power capable of operating simultaneously across several distant theatres; as well as proactive security diplomacy …
The destruction of the First and Second Temples also stemmed from internal division and an inability to read the geopolitical map … To mobilise an entire society to confront existential threats without sinking into despair, we must turn anxiety into a plan of action … Revealing the facts regarding the enemy’s growing strength and its alliances should not be done in an apocalyptic tone, but in a professional and sober one … [A] ‘Sober Hope’ model … must be adopted that combines brutal realism with resolute optimism … Israel was founded on the recognition of an existential danger and a joining of forces to overcome it. Returning to that spirit – a spirit of vigilance, partnership and meticulous planning – is the only way to replace denial with preparedness that will ensure our survival for generations to come.
“War for War’s Sake” — America Versus Israel (Colonel (res.), Strategy and Policy, Udi Evental)
In Israel in 2026, war has become a means of advancing political aims, whereas in America that role is reserved precisely for peace agreements … The relationship between politics and war in the two countries is diametrically opposed: Trump is pursuing political agreements that would end the wars in the Middle East, which are damaging him politically. A photographed peace agreement between enemies is perceived in the US as a political asset. In Israel, by contrast, peace has disappeared from the political lexicon and has come to signify weakness ahead of election day. The prime minister and his coalition, each for their own reasons, are eager for a green light from Trump to return to war in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, so that they can continue to “strike,” “destroy,” and “crush” …
In Gaza, Israel fought for two full years, using a level of force it had never before employed there, yet it neither destroyed Hamas nor disarmed it. If Israel repeats the same action, will the result be different? No … Yet the government is only weakening the Palestinian Authority, which is a potential alternative … In the West Bank, where de facto annexation is underway, the commander of Central Command has warned that Jewish terrorism – which the government is ignoring at best – could ignite the area. In Lebanon … the government is seeking to renew the war and establish a security zone up to the Litani River. Would a security zone solve the problem? We have already seen this movie, a long, fifteen-year movie, and we all know how it ended … And in Iran, Israel wants to return to war and destroy critical national infrastructure, especially energy infrastructure. That might be understandable if the objective were to secure a better nuclear agreement [dismantling missiles and proxies is not on the table]. But the claim is that no good agreement can be reached with the current regime. So are we returning to the logic of regime change, which failed in the last war? What the hell is the political objective? …
The gap between Israel and the US is rooted, first and foremost, in public opinion. Whereas Americans learned the lessons of the long wars in Afghanistan and Iraq after the September 11 attacks, Israeli public opinion is still seared by October 7, which shattered citizens’ sense of personal security … Endless war allows [Netanyahu] to drag out his trial, and some fear that he may also try to use the security situation to postpone the elections. So perhaps, more than regime change in Iran, the goal is regime preservation in Israel? … The messianic right in [Netanyahu’s] government is pushing for war and sees it, along with the security zones established under its cover on the pretext of security necessity, as the “beginning of redemption”, the realization and settlement of the vision of the “Greater Israel” … Trump, unlike the Israeli government, operates on the understanding that the use of force is not an end in itself but a means of achieving political arrangements. Israel’s next government must also turn in that direction if it is to repair the damage.
‘As the IDF faces shortfall of 12,000 conscript soldiers, the numbers of available combat soldiers is declining’ (Ha’aretz):
Thousands of soldiers have been wounded, while others have left military service. According to data from the IDF Personnel Directorate, the number of soldiers leaving service has risen sharply, with the military saying 80 percent left because of mental health issues that are not classified as clinical conditions … The [IDF] says it currently faces a shortage of about 12,000 conscript soldiers, including between 6,000 and 7,500 combat troops. Officials estimate that if mandatory service is ultimately shortened, an additional immediate shortage of roughly 4,000 combat soldiers will emerge for an extended period. The army says it is already struggling to maintain current force levels and lacks the capacity to expand them to meet new demands, preventing the establishment of all the battalions and units required under its operational plans. The military estimates that 75 percent of roughly 80,000 people currently avoiding the draft are ultra-Orthodox Jews and believes the crisis cannot be resolved without a significant increase in their enlistment … Defense officials say the bill currently being advanced by the government is not expected to produce meaningful change.
https://conflictsforum.substack.com/p/bitter-truths-israel-is-collapsing