Can Trump Disobey His Masters and Not Attack Iran? Unlikely

John Measheimer, the University of Chicago professor, said in an interview on Tuesday that President Donald Trump likely does not want to risk a war with Iran, but it is unlikely that he will be able to say no to his “masters” because Israel wants the fight.

“Every country in the Middle East, except maybe the UAE, is desperate to avoid this war,” you told Judge Andrew Napolitano’s “Judging Freedom.” “The Chinese and the Russians don’t want this war, Trump doesn’t want this war. Who wants this war? [Israeli Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu.”

Napolitano asked if he believes Netanyahu will get the war, and Mearsheimer admitted that he is not sure. He said there are times when he feels the war cannot happen because it is unlikely that the U.S. will achieve its goals by striking Iran, and he said Iran has a lot of options for retaliation, like closing the Strait of Hormuz. He said Iran can also launch ballistic missiles at Israel.

“So, it’s hard to see why it makes sense to start this war from a purely strategic point of view. But then it looks like Trump has boxed himself in, and furthermore, it appears that the Israelis have been putting enormous pressure on him go to war against Iran. You know, can he disobey his masters?

The Iranians said Tuesday that there has been progress made in the indirect negotiations with the Trump administration, but Vice President JD Vance told Fox News that Iran has not acknowledged core demands in these talks. These demands call for no nuclear program, a capped ballistic missile program, and an end to Tehran’s support for regional allies, like Hezbollah and the Houthis.

“One thing I will say about the negotiation this morning: In some ways, it went well — they agreed to meet afterwards. But in other ways, it was very clear that the president has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through,” he said, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Iran even dangled some economic opportunities for the Trump administration if it agrees to a deal.

The paper said a top Iranian said, “Common interests in the fields of oil and gas, mining investments, and even airplane purchases, are included in the negotiation framework. For the sustainability of the agreement, it is essential that the U.S. also benefits in areas with high and rapid economic returns.”

https://trendsinthenews.substack.com/p/mearsheimer-can-trump-disobey-hi