Chinese Silver War Commences January 1st

China is implementing export licenses on silver starting January 1st essentially restricting which companies can ship it internationally.

This is a big deal because China supplies roughly 60-70% of globally traded silver and most exporters won’t qualify for the new licenses. The market’s already pricing this in, with Shanghai silver jumping to $85/oz and creating a $5 premium over US prices.​​ Silver has surged 175% in 2025 because it’s become critical infrastructure that most people don’t realize.

Every solar panel needs silver paste to capture sunlight, the entire renewable energy buildout depends on it. EVs require 2-3 times more silver than gas cars due to battery management systems and charging infrastructure. AI data centers are silver intensive machines with far more conductive connections than traditional servers and with 33% of new computing capacity being dedicated to AI, that’s enormous structural demand. Semiconductors, 5G equipment, medical devices and water filtration systems all require silver with no viable substitutes.​​

The problem is that 70% of silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc mining. You can’t just “make more silver”, you only get it when those other metals are mined. Mine production rose just 0.9% in 2024 despite surging prices and demand, creating persistent deficits exceeding 200 million ounces in 2025. Recycling can’t close the gap.​ China’s licensing requirement is a geopolitical play securing domestic supply for their solar manufacturers while creating global scarcity that benefits their state approved exporters.

Combined with structural supply deficits that can’t be solved quickly, silver is becoming a genuine industrial bottleneck for the entire clean energy and AI infrastructure transition. This shortage will likely stay in place for years.