It’s been clear for a long time that Trump is looking for an exit strategy. In fact, reports have consistently stated that Trump began that search almost immediately after it became obvious that there would be no Weekend War. But Iran rejected Trump’s feelers. And so the search continues, with Trump desperate to get a deal that allows him to claim victory. Iran, on the other hand, is hanging tough and has to be pleased with Big Picture developments. The economic (and political) pressure is building and, no matter what Rubio tried to claim yesterday, the world sees Trump as the “bad guy”, not Iran. Most ominous of all, as Sean Foo reports, the rates on long term treasuries are approaching the level at which Trump was previously forced to cancel his tariff war (yes, even before the SCOTUS scotched it).
Project Freedom was the latest desperate attempt to find an exit, and turned out to be the biggest flop so far. Unbluffable Iran promptly saw Trump’s escalation and raised him with their own counter escalation, which was a killer, as Professor Pape explains—and follow the link for a good 1:51 Rick Sanchez explanation:
Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape
2h
Most are missing what really happened yesterday:
Iran EXPANDED its control of Hormuz
Threatening UAE pipeline that evaded earlier attacks, cutting oil etc even more
This war is existential for Iran. Threatening the UAE pipeline that circumvents Hormuz is pretty much existential for the world economy, and that move shows how far Iran is prepared to escalate. So far, after demonstrating its ability to strike KSA’s pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea shortly before the ceasefire, Iran has allowed KSA to continue using that pipeline. However, the implicit message from the escalation against the UAE is that—no matter what side deal Iran may have with KSA—Iran is prepared to shut off the Red Sea exit, too. That’s Iran’s nuclear option.
That dose of reality brought Project Freedom—an attempt to frame Anglo-Zionists, in the face of all evidence, as somehow “good guys”—to a screeching halt. Trump bailed so fast it must have made even Iran’s head spin:
Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape
14h
Trump just buried Project Freedom
With attacks on UAE oil, it already failed on day 1.
Trump is desperately bouncing from one extreme to another —
A doom spiral of strategic failure in the Escalation Trap
Now, Pape’s contention is that Trump is locked into a structural doom spiral of escalation. It’s a strong argument, but there is another possibility. Larry Johnson, this morning (Ball of Confusion… Trump’s Mixed Signals on Iran), confesses that he no longer knows what Trump is up to, but later adds:
From Iran’s perspective, they are still holding trump cards while Donald Trump is still being inundated with demands from the ardent Zionists that he finish off Iran militarily.
But doesn’t all the flailing about that Trump’s been engaged in suggest that he sees the escalation trap? That he’s gambling that he’ll somehow find an off ramp one of these days, while he fends off Jewish Nationalist demands for total war? There’s good news in that—maybe:
Policy Tensor @policytensor
The good thing about this ridiculous episode is that he’s flailing around and trying to find cheap tricks instead of falling for the hasbara recommendation to blow the whole wad in a failed bid to disarm Iran. It suggests to me that, perhaps after a few more failed tricks, the US will enter real negotiations with a more realistic appraisal of the balance of power.
In fact, that’s exactly what we’re hearing this morning, but first Rubio begged—I’m not kidding—the UN for help:
SIMPLICIUS Ѱ @simpatico771
8h
Calling for help? I thought the war was “won” and Iran “defeated”?
Department of State @StateDept
SECRETARY RUBIO: We’re asking the UN to call on Iran to stop blowing up ships, remove the mines, and allow humanitarian relief.
If the international community can’t rally behind this and solve something so straightforward, then I don’t know what the utility of the UN system is.
That’s good news, too—Trump openly begging the UN to help him find a face saving exit.
So what’s the reality? Here’s some reality—the MSM is starting to slowly leak the bad news about base destruction, economic destruction, and failure to damage Iran’s military and nuclear programs:
New York Post @nypost
Oil production won’t return to normal until after Midterm Elections – no matter when Iran war ends, new analysis says https://trib.al/gngmCZ7
Can you imagine the freakout behind closed Congressional doors? And, by the way, Dems can’t be too happy over this either. They need an end to the war, too, to fend off voter unhappiness with their own fecklessness. The politicians know that Americans can’t be gaslit forever. They can read Mark Penn (at the last link), too. There’s no good news in this, not really, and the bad news will get worse. Trump knows this, too.
Add to the political pressure the geo-political pressure. Of course US vassals and allies are feeling the pain and are squealing. But Russia and China are starting to openly play tough. Putin apparently presented a pretty tough sketch of “dire consequences” if Trump renewed the bombing, and then China delivered a one-two combination (Trump’s Road To Beijing Goes Through Hormuz). First, China told Trump/Bessent to take their sanctions and shove them—thus disposing of another ploy to try to get China to pressure Iran. Then China signaled that Trump’s trip to Beijing—if it comes off—will be about America’s “unjust war on Iran”. Definitely not what Trump needs from the trip, politically: being schooled by Xi on Xi’s home turf. And there’s a strong hint that if Trump starts bombing again, all bets on China – US relations may be off.
That brings us to the reports today, in which Trump claims “Great Progress toward a Complete and Final Agreement.” Iran is throwing cold water on that claim. Here’s what’s known:
zerohedge @zerohedge
Iran pours cold water on deal euphoria:
What US media outlets are publishing about the details of the negotiations does not reflect the reality of what is happening, according to AI Araby citing Iranian Sources
Progress has been made in talks with Washington through Pakistan, but it has not yet reached a level that would lead to an agreement.
The negotiations are focused on ending the war, not the nuclear issue.
The negotiations are still facing the intransigent American approach and excessive demands.
We’re told that a one page framework may be close to agreement, and that sounds suspiciously like Iran’s “three phase” framework. In that three phase framework a definitive end to the war would be the first phase, and any nuclear agreements would be the third phase. Iran has indicated a willingness to combine the first two phases, to reach an agreement on no more wars and also Hormuz, before moving on to nuclear talks.
As it stands, that looks like an admission by Trump that his war was a total failure and was all for nothing. Iran comes out of it having faced down the world hegemon decisively—destroyed its regional bases, gained control over Persian Gulf oil, positioned itself for further strategic gains in the region. What’s in it for Trump? Perhaps some boilerplate language about Hormuz being open? That would be pretty weak, but maybe enough for gaslighting purposes at home. Trump may be approaching the point at which a beggar can’t be a chooser. The bond markets are unforgiving. Something has to give.
