New Poll in Australia Reveals Surge in Support for Right Wing One Nation Party

The Right’s structural realignment in Australia is here and the numbers are brutal. Our latest AFR (Australian Financial Review) / RedBridge Accent poll shows the former conservative bloc has shrunk into a political rump, while One Nation has surged into the dominant force on the Right.

Start with the top line: One Nation isn’t just ahead, it’s ahead by a mile. Now look at what’s left of the old order: • Liberal Party of Australia (outside Queensland): 13% • LNP (Queensland): 4% • National Party of Australia: 2% And it gets worse when you cut into the cohorts that used to be the Coalition’s industrial base. Trade/TAFE qualifications: • Former Coalition combined: 14% • One Nation: 33% Gen X: • Former Coalition: 12% • One Nation: 35%

It’s a structural transfer of conservative identity, from mainstream centre-right parties to a populist right alternative. On the other side of the ledger, Australian Labor Party is holding steady: • Labor primary: 34% (essentially where it was at the last federal election) • We’re reporting 56% 2PP to Labor But here’s the key point going forward: as the contest increasingly shifts toward Labor vs One Nation, we will need to model and test preference behaviour in a Labor v One Nation two-party framework, because the preference flows of former Coalition voters will shape the next political era.

Unless the former Coalition can turn this around (big ask, just ask the Conservatives in the UK). This may be confronting for some. But it’s also familiar internationally. Australia wasn’t immune. We were just a little behind the global curve: where traditional conservative parties fracture, hollow out, and get replaced by populist right-wing alternatives. Going forward, we expect the following trends, unless the Liberal Party can turn this around: • Liberal moderates bleeding to Labor and independents • Liberal conservatives consolidating into One Nation.