The Moment of Truth is Approaching
So this is how the whole drama ends: either Neo-Caligula and his “vast armada” pause, creating space for negotiations and ultimately saving the world economy, or the gates of hell open in West Asia.
The hour is approaching. Almost all the pieces of the puzzle are falling into place, writes Pepe Escobar .
Even as his “massive fleet” is deployed, neo-Caligula is shouting at Iran in his social media posts: “MAKE A DEAL” (originally in all caps). This is maximum pressure in practice. There’s not even a chance for negotiation. It’s surrender or war.
Neo-Caligula’s three main demands:
- Iran must halt its civilian nuclear program, that is, completely stop uranium enrichment.
- Iran must minimize its missile program.
- Iran must stop supporting “proxy forces” – such as Hezbollah, Ansarallah in Yemen, and Iraqi militias.
It is absolutely impossible that Ayatollah Khamenei, the IRGC, and the Majlis—the Iranian parliament—will agree to any part of this ultimatum, which is, of course, dictated by the Zionist axis. Therefore, there will be no capitulation.
This is the signal for Tehran to drastically raise the stakes.
The Majlis has already approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The final decision rests with the Iranian government/security apparatus. This is effectively binding on the government and the military, effectively authorizing the IRGC, under full constitutional protection, to close the Strait of Hormuz.
I’ve written extensively about this in Asia Times over the past ten years. At the time, Goldman Sachs’ derivatives experts were adamant: if Hormuz is blockaded, before or during a full-scale naval battle in the Gulf, oil prices could rise to $700 a barrel.
And that will only be short-lived, because the entire global economy will collapse.
Above all, blocking Hormuz would have led to a two-quadrillion dollar (all caps mine) explosion in the derivatives market—a side effect of the original, misleading BIS (Bank for International Settlements) estimate of $700 trillion. Over the years, various Gulf traders, off the books, have endorsed the “quadrillion” figure.
Even over the past decade, the US Joint Chiefs of Staff has admitted they lack the military capacity to keep Hormuz open. This remains the case.
Now to clueless little gusano Marco Rubio – bought and paid for by Zionist billionaire Paul Singer, who already profited from the Venezuela operation – who talks about the US “position of strength” near Iran.
Since 30,000-40,000 US troops are “within range of thousands of Iranian UAVs and ballistic missiles,” it is “prudent” to have troops to “defend against what could be an Iranian threat (Rubio’s own definition).”
Of course, this “threat” would never come from the empire of chaos, plunder, and permanent attack —according to a neoconservative dream outlined as far back as the late 1990s.
So, according to Rubio’s logic, the US military now reserves the right to launch a preemptive strike on Iran.
Assuming this preemptive strike takes place, Tehran has already made it clear, including through an adviser to the Supreme Leader and the Foreign Ministry, that it will not be a limited war.
Translation: Even the shadow of a Tomahawk hitting Iranian territory will be met with an “immediate and comprehensive response” targeting Tel Aviv and US bases in the Gulf.
Short summary: Neo-Caligula—at least on the surface—is presenting his threats as a prelude to a “deal” that would effectively end Iran’s nuclear program and all of its defense/deterrence mechanisms.
Tehran’s response: If you attack us, we will destroy Israel as a functioning entity—we have enough hypersonic missiles for that—and then you, neo-Caligula, will be responsible for the collapse of the global economy.
“Unconventional” weapons and “strategic surprises”
Venezuela was just a rehearsal. Iran is the Holy Grail.
Neo-Caligula isn’t just trying to impose a military blockade on Iran. He’s launching a brutal economic siege war—targeting not only Iran, but also China and Russia, simultaneously disrupting the integration projects of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (China-Iran) and the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC, which unites Russia, Iran, and India).
This is the next level – far beyond hybrid, almost hot – of the extended imperial war against BRICS, targeting no fewer than four top BRICS: Iran, Russia, China and India.
We’ve gone far beyond simply “containing” Iran. This is a systemic threat, extending across the entire geopolitical and geoeconomic spectrum, directly disrupting energy flows, connectivity corridors, and strategic partnerships. And all of this disguised as a mere “security operation.”
Iran’s asymmetrical maritime strategy, painstakingly developed since the turn of the millennium, employs numerous means to counter imperial attack: more than 6,000 sea mines; deployment of swarm tactics via small, missile-armed boats; numerous anti-ship and ballistic missiles along the Persian Gulf coastline; and dozens of kamikaze drones, submarines, and anti-ship missiles scattered across the Gulf islands.
Iran is concentrating all its firepower on what it describes as the “first line of confrontation,” namely the Persian Gulf. Unlike during the 12-day war, everything will be deployed in the combat zone: “unconventional” weapons; a series of “strategic surprises”; new hypersonic missiles; and large-scale cyberattacks.
Those with an IQ above room temperature at the Department of Forever Wars, for example, might do their homework on the Khalij Fars supersonic ballistic anti-ship missile, part of Iran’s AAAD strategy: Mach 3 speed; range of over 300 km; over 650 kg warhead with EO/infrared seeker. The Khalij Fars would be preying on American easy targets.
Iran has already switched off its radars and is going underground, including the civilian radars at Imam Khomeini International Airport, to protect itself from US missiles and simultaneously allow for the installation of Russian Murmansk-BN jamming systems (which require radar silence to be properly calibrated).
On the imperial side, there’s also the impending arrival of the E-11A BACN: not just a reconnaissance aircraft, but a kind of massive “flying router”: an airborne Wi-Fi connection connecting F-35s and F-22s with various communications systems to ground troops and ships, all in real time and unhindered by Iran’s notoriously mountainous terrain.
Are you ready to destroy the world economy?
NATO, as expected, is now omnipresent, complete with shrill rhetoric about regime change. A healthy scenario suggests that neo-Caligula may have struck a deal with the EU’s chihuahuas: I’ll (for now) hold off on annexing Greenland, but you’ll support my war against Iran.
And so, a new “coalition of the willing” (actually, “forced”) is emerging. It’s no wonder that the IRGC is now being designated a “terrorist organization” by Brussels—on par with Al Qaeda and ISIS (which, incidentally, have been completely normalized by Washington, Brussels, and even Moscow).
At the same time, several NATO bases are being set up to assist the American “massive armada” with a huge airlift.
Tehran has now fully grasped that what neo-Caligula and his Zionist supporters truly want is regime change. This has absolutely nothing to do with Iran’s nuclear program.
Nevertheless, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf continues to emphasize that Tehran is not opposed to the principle of dialogue and diplomacy, as long as it involves mutual respect. Turkish Sultan Erdoğan, in turn, proposes a high-level trilateral meeting between Iran, the US, and Turkey, possibly via video conference.
It’s now up to the diplomatically hostile neo-Caligula and his megalomaniac, narcissistic mood swings. This is how the whole drama will end: either neo-Caligula and his “vast armada” pause, creating space for talks and ultimately saving the global economy, or the gates of hell will open in West Asia.
It is the moment of truth.
https://www.frontnieuws.com/pepe-escobar-het-uur-van-de-waarheid-nadert