Trump Knows He’s in Deep Trouble
John Mearsheimer, the University of Chicago professor, said if he were playing Iran’s hand in the war against the U.S. and Israel, he would see no benefit in cutting a deal now, given that Tehran can continue to inflict pain on the Western economy, which will result in more favorable negotiating conditions in the future.
The Trump administration has tried its best to present Iran’s military as completely decimated as a result of overwhelming U.S. power. (Here’s Pete Hegseth, the chief warrior in the Department of War, explaining how he intends to keep his hands on “that throttle.”)
Mearseheimer said Trump seemed to think he was in the “catbird seat” days into the war, but that has changed. Now, he wants a way out, but there is no off-ramp because the Iranians know they hold most of the cards and are likely thinking about prolonging the war.
“It seems to me, if you’re playing Iran’s hand, you don’t want the war to end now,” he told Judge Andrew Napolitano’s Judging Freedom. “You want the war to keep going for the foreseeable future, and the reason is, as the war goes on, the cost that the West is paying for this conflict goes up, and up, and up. And that means that you’ll gain greater leverage. My view is that if there’s anything that’s going to stop this war, it’s going to be a situation where we are on the precipice of a major economic disaster, worldwide economic disaster. That situation will force President Trump to go to the negotiating table and make huge concessions to the Iranians…he’ll have no choice.”
He continued, “I don’t see why the Iranians, from a strategic point of view, would cut a deal now.”
Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for the unified command of Iran’s armed forces, mocked Trump’s claim that Washington and Tehran have held productive talks.
“Has the level of your inner struggle reached the stage of you negotiating with yourself? People like us can never get along with people like you,” he said, according to The Times of Israel.
Iranian officials have told potential mediators that the U.S. has already used negotiations as a ruse twice before launching sneak attacks and they do not want to be “fooled again,” Axios reported.
The report said:
Iranian officials have told the mediators — Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey — that U.S. military movements and Trump’s decision to deploy major troop reinforcements have increased their suspicion that his proposal for peace talks is just a ruse.
Two War Department officials told The New York Times on Tuesday that the Pentagon ordered about 2,000 soldiers from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division to begin moving to the Middle East. The paper said these troops will help give the president more options “as he weighs a new diplomatic initiative with Iran.”
Napolitano told Mearsheimer that it seems that Trump does not have a clear off-ramp, and he agreed and said that if the president did, he would take it.
“Again, the Iranians have a vested interest in continuing this war, because the longer this war goes on, the more leverage they have,” he said.
https://trendsinthenews.substack.com/p/mearsheimer-trump-knows-hes-in-deep