U.S. Admits No Hormuz Plan B as Preparations for Next Wave Begin
Something remarkable happened earlier today.
Marco Rubio admitted to the utter helplessness of the US and its allies on the Hormuz issue. Listen to how weak and powerless he sounds pleading for answers as to what the West can do if Iran chooses to permanently close the Strait.
He’s outright admitting that the US has no plan B, and that if Iran chose to keep the Strait closed indefinitely, the whole world would simply have to “think of something”.
Has defeat ever been clearer?
Bloomberg printed several new pieces outlining precisely what would happen if Iran chose to take that path:
A closure of the Strait of Hormuz through August raises the risk of an economic downturn that comes close to the scale of the Great Recession in 2008, according to Rapidan Energy Group.
The advisory firm’s base case assumes the waterway reopens in July, resulting in an average oil demand reduction of 2.6 million barrels a day and the spot-market price for benchmark Brent crude peaking near $130 a barrel over the summer.
A delay until August would deepen the third-quarter supply deficit to roughly 6 million barrels a day, the firm said, just as inventories approach operationally challenging levels.
Now Trump is reportedly getting ready for resumption of attacks, though some reports continue to plausibly claim he’s still clinging on for hope that Iran will send him some favorable “deal” terms. Trump knows there is little he can accomplish with further strikes, but it would be the only face-saving action he could possibly take to chip away at the now-universal skepticism of his “triumphant” operation.
Some last “inconvenient” obstacles have just been removed in timely fashion:
Even the Gulf states appear to be begging him not to resume, and for good reason—they would be first in line to be sent back to the stone age by Iran:
The United Arab Emirates has made a more concerted push for an end to the Iran war in recent days, joining Saudi Arabia and Qatar in urging US President Donald Trump to give negotiations a chance, according to several people familiar with the matter.
The conversations were prompted by the countries’ fears that any retaliation from Tehran, if hostilities resume, will plunge Gulf economies into chaos, the people said. In separate calls with Trump, leaders of the three US allies said military action won’t achieve America’s long-standing goals with Iran, the people said, asking not to be named discussing sensitive matters.
Well, why wouldn’t Iran exact greater revenge on the UAE in particular? Reports last week had concluded that UAE went out of its way to directly partake in strikes against Iran, though doing so covertly.
All these states have very good reason to fear, as Iran has continued issuing statements that we can now safely conclude are not threats, but promises:
More:
BREAKING: A source close to Iran’s Ghalibaf says Iran’s “third struggle” plan announced by the IRGC will close Bab el-Mandeb Strait “by fire” and disable the seven submarine internet cables under the Strait of Hormuz, in immediate response to upcoming US strikes that Iran has assessed as “inevitable,” for this weekend.
The source adds that Iran will also respond with “next-generation missiles and drones” firing hundreds daily at the Gulf energy infrastructure, and that the US and Israel are playing “Russian roulette” with the outcome being the “collapse of the global economy and unprecedented gas prices.”
As can be seen this new third tier escalation from Iran is said to include the immediate closure of Bab al-Mandab Strait and the cutting of international internet cables beneath the Strait of Hormuz. All the previous calculations from Bloomberg and co. as to the state of the global economy were based merely on the Hormuz status quo prolonging out—not entirely new vectors of paralyzing the global economy with strategic black swan attacks.
Does Trump really want to go there? Will one man’s ego bring down the whole world?
Well, anything’s worth it for the right cause, no? And patriotism, love for one’s nation, after all, is the greatest of causes.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/us-admits-no-hormuz-plan-b-as-preparations