Where Matters Stand After Vance’s Theater
J. D. Vance went to Islamabad and made impossible demands on Iran—demands he knew would be rejected and were, in fact, utterly unreasonable. The demands about enrichment, for example, were advanced by a state that refuses all inspections and stands outside all nuclear regulation regimes—not Iran. Israel. The refusal to recognize Iranian sovereignty over a waterway within its territory is equally outrageous. Here’s a summary of Iran’s view on what transpired in Islamabad:
Megatron @Megatron_ron
54m
 US-Iran negotiations failed
Axios: ‘Iran refused to give up its stockpile of enriched uranium’
IRIB: “The American enemy, which is vile, wicked and dishonest — attempted to achieve on the negotiating table what it could not achieve through war.
Among these demands are handing over enriched uranium and opening the Strait of Hormuz without confirmed Iranian sovereignty over it.
Iran has decided to reject these terms and continue the sacred defense of its fatherland by any means necessary, military or diplomatic.”
Source to Tasnim: “Iran is in no rush. The ball is now in America’s court. They have some time to reconsider their miscalculation, while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.”
One of the issues was America’s unwillingness to compel Israel to an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon
The U.S. merely convinced Israel to stop strikes in Beirut while ‘gradually expanding’ to include southern Lebanon and the rest of the country. Iran did not agree to this.
Independent analysis—Jewish Nationalist interests trumped US interests. Hardly a surprise. And beyond Jewish Nationalist interests are Anglo-Zionist Empire interests, including the big energy companies, which know that loss of control over Persian Gulf energy means loss of dollar hegemony and loss of empire. The war must continue because it’s existential for the Empire.
DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics
8h
Al Mayadeen analyst Musa Assi: Vance’s uranium/nuclear weapons excuse is “very weak and cannot be believed.”
Iran has repeatedly said it doesn’t want nuclear weapons and is ready to reduce enrichment to very low levels for civilian use. Everyone is convinced Iran does not have the intention to produce a nuclear weapon.
The real reasons for failure:
First: Israel succeeded in sabotaging negotiations by insisting on continuing the war on Lebanon, violating the ceasefire that Trump had agreed to as a precondition.
Second: The US chose “Israel first” not “America first.” Vance called Trump ten times in 21 hours, showing he lacked full authority. The American negotiating team chose Israeli interests over American interests and peace.
Failure may take us back to before the ceasefire. The military option is still on the table.
The US attempted to push two destroyers through the Strait of Hormuz under the pretext of “mine sweeping”—for which those ships are not suited. They left after being subjected to close surveillance by an Iranian drone. Was this merely a frontrunner for Trump’s fantasy of switching from a losing kinetic air war—which has depleted US munitions—to a fantasy naval blockade? A naval blockade would be an overt act of war not only on Iran but on the entire world. Remember freedom of navigation? For me but not for thee! Cutting the world off from a major source of energy? Not only economically nuts, but also militarily unfeasible, half way around the world. This is a crazy concept floated by people who are living in the past:
DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics
7h
 Trump is sharing articles floating a US naval blockade of Iran, the “Venezuela playbook,” after talks fail. Here’s what that would actually look like.
The idea is the US Navy takes control of the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island strangling Iran’s economy while cutting China and India off from their key oil source simultaneously.
Takes control—how?
The problem: Iran is not Venezuela.
- The strait is only 33km wide at its narrowest point, every ship that enters is within range of Iran’s entire coastal arsenal
- Iran’s Khalij Fars anti-ship ballistic missiles have a 300km range and are designed specifically to hit moving ships at sea
- Noor and Qader cruise missiles, fired from mobile launchers hidden in coastal caves, cover the entire strait from the Iranian shoreline
- Iran has an estimated 5,000-6,000 naval mines — including influence mines that sit on the seabed and are nearly impossible to detect
Sending those destroyers in to supposedly search for mines was nothing but a joke pretext for intel gathering at sea.
- IRGC fast attack swarm boats are designed specifically to overwhelm US destroyers in confined waters, a classified DoD war game found the US lost 16 major warships including a carrier to Iranian swarm tactics
- Iran controls three fortified island outposts (Larak, Qeshm and Abu Musa) sitting directly on the shipping lanes, each with underground bunkers and missile batteries
Air/sea assaults on those islands would be far more disastrous than the Isfahan debacle. Any such attempt would necessarily fly/sail into the face of massive, prepared defenses.
Iran doesn’t even need to win a naval battle, FPRI experts note Iran is running an “insurance blockade,” it only needs to strike occasionally to make insurance uneconomical for commercial shipping. That alone shuts the strait down.
Mine clearance in a contested environment takes a minimum of 4 weeks, and the US has decommissioned most of its dedicated minesweepers in CENTCOM. In 1991 it took 40 ships four months to clear Iraqi minefields in a permissive environment.
Meanwhile the USS Gerald R. Ford, cited in the article as leading the blockade, is currently in Split, Croatia being repaired after Iranian strikes. The USS George H.W. Bush is en route as replacement.
Trump may be out-blockaded before the blockade even starts.
Meaning, Iran’s control regime over Hormuz as now exercised will place the global economy under intolerable pressure long before any credible blockade by the US (and vassal navies) could be launched. And what would be the response to Chinese—and possibly Indian—naval presences? This is crazy talk that looks as unworkable as the current war.
I heard a commenter last night suggest that the current situation is akin to Trump having shot himself in the foot—or was shot in the foot by Jewish Nationalist fantasists. He’s now trying to to treat himself but has got the bandage wrapped around his neck. November looms.
https://meaninginhistory.substack.com/p/where-matters-stand-after-vances